— William Holland (@WilliamHolland) October 21, 2024 Winning the First Fight: Experimenting With Army Special Operations Forces’ Contributions in Large-Scale Combat Operations By John Amble, Modern War Institute: “As the U.S. Army embraces the challenges articulated in the 2022 National Defense Strategy, its special operations forces must redefine their role in large-scale combat operations.” SOCOM Chief Sees ‘Renaissance’ for Special Forces Amid Great Power Competition, Evolving Warfare By Michael Marrow, Breaking Defense: ““Strategic competition has been and absolutely is in SOF’s DNA. We’d offer that this era is a bit of a special ops renaissance.”” CHINA, SOUTH CHINA SEA: China’s Plans To Deploy Floating Nuclear Power Plants By Jack Aylmer, Straight Arrow News: “China’s plans to deploy floating nuclear reactors capable of powering military facilities in contested areas of the South Pacific has raised concerns about regional stability.” Mark Helprin Is the Embodiment of MMT, Foreign Policy Edition
By John Tamny, RealClearMarkets: “Helprin plainly is proud of what he devours, but then that’s seemingly the problem. Simple economics doesn’t seem to intrude on his learning.” The Four Pillars of Tactical Innovation: A Path for Impactful Disruption By Robert Leach, Modern War Institute: “Innovation is the lifeblood of progress, and in the context of the military, it is a crucial component of keeping pace with today’s rapid technological evolution.” Non-State Actors and the Phantom of Asymmetry By Ved Shinde, the interpreter: “The might of the U.S. military no longer guarantees world order. There are new actors and new ecosystems in play.” China Is Winning the Battle for the Red Sea By Nathan Levine, UnHerd: “America has retired as world policeman.” China’s Zombie East China Sea Policy By Denny Roy, The Diplomat: “The decade-old approach is failing to gain any substantial benefit, while maximizing the chances of an accidental war that Beijing does not want.” Special Operations Force Structure: Strategic Calculus or Organizational Power? In a time when U.S. competitors are investing heavily in information and influence operations, Army Special Operations Command plans to reduce these branches and further subordinate them to other parts of special operations. This would be a mistake. China’s Corrupt Missile Industry with Elliot Ji and Nick Danforth Nick sat down with Elliot to discuss the article, "Rocket-Powered Corruption: Why the Missile Industry Became the Target of Xi's Purge," which was published on January 18. History Has No Lessons for You: A Warning for Policymakers by Joseph Stieb While a sophisticated grasp of the past has tremendous value for anyone in government, reducing it to a search for lessons detracts from sound historical understanding and misleads today’s strategic thinkers. Mid-Afternoon Map: Octo-Communist Extravaganza by Nick Danforth If America, with its alliances and other instruments of power, is an octopus, some countries get a helping tentacle, while others get strangled like a stray mollusk. Why Scholarship Still Matters by Francis J. Gavin
In his introduction to Vol. 7, Issue 1, the chair of Texas National Security Review’s editorial board, Frank Gavin, reflects on the joys of being a professor and expresses concern about the health of American universities. Beyond the Neutral Card: From Civil-Military Relations to Military Politics By Thomas Crosbie & Anders Klitmøller, Strategy Bridge: “. . . militaries run by officers who are primarily motivated by their fear of civilian punishment and who are at all times conscious of civilian oversight seem more likely to become good at buffering from civilian oversight and satisfying civilian preferences than to become good at achieving military security or wielding the military instrument.” The Rule of the Legions By Graham McAleer, Law & Liberty: “The capacity of the legions to exercise extreme violence was the necessary precondition for the Pax Romana.” Mahdism: The Apocalyptic Ideology Behind Iran's Nuclear Program
by Raymond Ibrahim The Stream December 19, 2023 https://www.meforum.org/65368/mahdism-the-apocalyptic-ideology-behind-iran Global Competition Reshaping Special Operations By Laura Heckmann, National Defense Magazine: “With the United States focused squarely on great power competition, Special Operations Forces are navigating a transition from a counterterrorism-focused force to one that can fight both peer adversaries and Pentagon bureaucracy.” BUD/S: Everything You Need To Know To Ace Navy SEAL Training By Joshua Skovlund, Task & Purpose: “All your burning questions about BUD/S, answered.” Infantry Is More than Rifle Squads
By Michael Hanson, Proceedings: “The force must evolve with warfare, but infantry’s task and purpose—to close with and destroy the enemy—must remain clear.”  Operational Art for the Replicator Initiative: Confessions of a Swarming Addict, by Benjamin Jensen
Operational art for swarming will require empowering military professionals at each echelon to experiment and develop supporting tactical concepts of employment and training iterations.
Irregular Warfare Education 'A lifelong Process'
By Paul Burton, Small Wars Journal: ““If traditional Warfare is checkers with violence, Irregular Warfare is not just chess, it is nine simultaneous chess games where pawn to queen four in one game affects the other eight games, every move has a symbiotic relationship with each other.”"
Defense Innovation & Venture Capital
By Andy Yakulis, RealClearDefense: “Public-Private Partnerships are the Key to Closing the Capability Gap between the U.S. and China."
Irregular Warfare, American Style
By James Holmes, 1945: “Forgetfulness is not a virtue for martial institutions."
Challenging the “Problem of Special Operations and USSOF”
By Charlie Black, Small Wars Journal: "In America’s Special Operations Problem Colonel R.D. Hooker, PhD former combat leader turned scholar offers a necessarily useful criticism of US Special Operations and SOF."
Iran's IRGC Is Under the Western Spotlight by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post January 28, 2023 https://www.meforum.org/64100/iran-irgc-is-under-the-western-spotlight
Congress Can Put Army Modernization Back on Track
John G. Ferrari | Breaking Defense John G. Ferrari asks five important questions that the Army needs to answer before committing to high-dollar procurements during its modernization push. Full Story  Urban Combat Is Changing. The Ukraine War Shows How By Sam Plapinger Four attributes distinguish today's city battles from those that have come before. Irregular Warfare Will Win ‘Strategic Competition’ By Sean McFate, The Hill: “. . . the Defense Department must study how to win against China and/or Russia in “strategic competition,” should it become a shooting war." Report to Congress on Chinese Naval Modernization From Congressional Research Service: “China’s navy is, by far, the largest of any country in East Asia, and sometime between 2015 and 2020 it surpassed the U.S. Navy in numbers of battle force ships (meaning the types of ships that count toward the quoted size of the U.S. Navy)." Atop the Indo-Pacific Watchtower From worries about South Korean troops to a bigger footprint for Japan, here are the must-read stories Breaking Defense's man in Sydney. Refuting the Irregular Warfare Pipedream By Charlie Black, Small Wars Journal: “. . . war of any character is ultimately pursued for political purposes with the uniformed military as only one among many instruments to achieve desired outcomes.” War Transformed
By Brian Kerg, Strategy Bridge: “The character of war is rapidly changing. The increasing availability of evolving technology confounds previous frameworks for military operations.” Does Size Matter in Nuclear Affairs? By Peter Huessy, Warrior Maven: “More specifically, are two-to-three hundred warheads enough for deterrence?”  Pentagon’s Hypersonics Director Rebuts the Critics By Sydney Freedberg, Breaking Defense: "Independent experts and the Pentagon’s hypersonics R&D director tell us a study of hypersonics by the Union of Concerned Scientists overlooks the very real advantages the new weapons offer the U.S. – and its adversaries." Israel Sees 6-Month Iran Nuclear Breakout, Longer Than Blinken Projection From Reuters: “Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz said the Trump administration "seriously damaged Iran's nuclear project and entire force build-up."” Access Denied? The Future of U.S. Basing in a Contested World By John Doe, Foreign Affairs: “In November 2020, the U.S. secretary of the Navy publicly expressed interest in establishing a 1st Fleet in the Indian Ocean. While the Navy currently patrols in the Pacific Ocean with the 7th Fleet, based in Yokosuka, Japan, it hoped that another fleet farther southwest would better enable it to cover the entire Indo-Pacific region." The Jihad in West Africa (Long War Journal) Branches of both Al Qaeda and ISIS are fighting for territory, but France’s patience may be starting to wear thin. Vital Signs: Second annual study reveals ‘C’ average for defense industrial base (National Defense) In 2018, the Defense Department released “Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain Resiliency of the United States,” a report focused on the production risks to critical defense industrial supply chains. These five items should top Biden’s defense priorities (Defense News) The Biden administration has the opportunity to institute reforms in several crucial areas at the Department of Defense. Access denied? The future of US basing in a contested world (War On The Rocks) In November 2020, the U.S. secretary of the Navy publicly expressed interest in establishing a 1st Fleet in the Indian Ocean. While the Navy currently patrols in the Pacific Ocean with the 7th Fleet, based in Yokosuka, Japan, it hoped that another fleet farther southwest would better enable it to cover the entire Indo-Pacific region. The country mentioned as a potential host — Singapore — appeared to balk at the idea. Culture, Not Tech, Is Obstacle To JADC2: JAIC “This is not a panacea,” the deputy director of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center says. “You can’t just sprinkle AI on all these legacy systems and expect them to work and talk together….That’s not how it works.” How To Make The Third Offset Real: The Combined JADC2
There are places where jointness, that still sometimes elusive character, is on full display in the US military and one of those is where close air support meets the Army. The Army’s Joint Support Team trains 4,200 Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine and Special Operations Command students in joint air-ground operations education, training and command-and-control systems integration. Few… 
Heckler & Koch’s HK416
By Caleb Larson, The National Interest: “German engineering at its finest and most lethal.”
Teaching Technology, Innovation, and Modern War at Stanford, Part 8:
From Capitol Hill to the Defense Industrial Base By Steve Blank, Modern War Institute: “I think there’s a serious debate going on within the Biden national security camp about what direction to go."
The Navy Needs a Retention Strategy
By Sam Calaway & John Bice, Proceedings: “The Navy has several programs and incentives for officer retention: the Career Intermission Program, Fleet Scholars Education Program, Targeted Reentry Program, and Low-Residency Graduate Education Program, to name a few. However, a web of disparate programs that tries to entice officers to stay is not a retention strategy." LSCO is a Lost Art…and it’s About Time By Kaman Lykins, Small Wars Journal: “War is one of the oldest and most terrible of human endeavors and Large Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) is war at its conventional zenith."
Why Masrour Barzani should resign from leading Iraqi Kurdistan
Michael Rubin | The National Interest
Espionage Emergency: China 'Floods' America with Spies by Gordon G. Chang
A recent Boeing MQ-25A Stingray flight test was a success, according to the company, and demonstrated that the UAV can fulfill its intended role as an aerial tanker and extend the reach of carrier air wings. – The National Interest
From new contract structures to robotic safety tools, Army Materiel Command is working on an ambitious master plan to modernize its arsenals, depots, and ammunition plants. – Breaking Defense Kris Osborn writes: Close air support for advancing infantry and precision-guided pinpoint strikes on enemy positions and fortifications were indispensable amid efforts to destroy Iraq insurgents, ISIS and the Taliban, yet there was no need for any kind of air-to-air engagement or destruction of advanced enemy air defenses. These things would be crucial in any war against a major adversary capable of projecting massive and destructive power from the sky. […]These dynamics are likely one reason why both Air Force and Army leaders signed a joint, mutual-service agreement to reinforce one another, support each other’s domain and more successfully network weapons and attack platforms to one another in real-time. . . . thus enter Joint All Domain Command and Control. – The National Interest
Kris Osborn writes: The U.S. Air Force Reaper Drones were crucial to victories in the War on Terrorism by delivering lethal, decisive and precise hellfire missile attacks upon terrorist and insurgent targets. They also provided countless hours of real-time intelligence to ground commanders through video surveillance in the Middle East and around the world. In fact, these drones have been continually expanding mission scope through a growing weapons arsenal and even new air-to-air attack capability. Yet, could the Reaper survive a war against China or Russia? Probably not. – The National Interest
Jason Lyall writes: Cheap, survivable drones, combined with armor and artillery, offer the militaries that field them real advantages. The four recent conflicts in which drones have appeared show that even modest vehicles can help win military victories and reshape geopolitics. And as drones become part of the arsenals of more countries—surging from eight in 2015 to 20 today—new actors are poised to seize the opportunity they offer to grab territory or ignite previously frozen conflicts. Governments and analysts need to rethink the role these weapons may play in actually increasing the risk of interstate violence. – Foreign Affairs
Seth J. Frantzman writes: The threat matrix is changing, and among today’s enemies, Iran is Israel’s main regional adversary with multiple complex missiles and drones. To confront these myriad threats, Israel needs its own complex multitiered system. Iron Dome has worked for 10 years to confront close-range threats and is the workhorse of Israel’s air defenders. David’s Sling, which is supposed to face higher-level threats and is similar to the US’s Patriot batteries, uses an impressive interceptor to stop enemy missiles. – Jerusalem Post
Yossi Melman writes: It is a classic example of the Mossad acting as Israel’s shadow foreign policy arm, and it would be no surprise if relations with other states – such as Oman, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, where Israel’s secret services have also taken the lead, come into the open too, with the establishment of formal diplomatic relations. – Haaretz
America's Intelligence Needs in the Face of Great-Power Competition By David Shedd, RealClearDefense: “Both China and Russia now rank as great powers and antagonistic competitors—and they are not alone. To cope with this reality, the military is shifting its primary focus from defeating international terrorism to prevailing in a great-power competition. U.S. intelligence must do the same.”  Long-Term Behavioral Change in a Knife Fight: The Future of Psychological Operations By Wade Pommer, Small Wars Journal: "Special Operations Forces - Psychological Operations should not exist in its current form. Rather, it should be moved to Conventional Forces with direct access to the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense." 66 ways to beat China in AI: report (Defense One) The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence submitted its interim report and third-quarter recommendations to the president and Congress Tuesday. It’s Time for the Pentagon to Take Data Principles More Seriously by Robert Work and Tara Murphy The Perils of Mission Command – A Historical Perspective By Conor O’Neill, Defence-in-Depth: "Mission command is firmly built into UK and Allied military doctrine. It has become an article of faith that it produces better results as it “…encourages initiative and decentralized decision-making” and thus “promotes…speed of action…”" Intrapreneurship: The Art of Innovation and Influence By Shamsa Lea & Lyndsay Freeman, Grounded Curiosity: "You might purely associate ‘intrapreneurship’ with tech startups and meetings on exercise balls with frappuccinos. Not very ‘military’ at first glance, but fostering a culture of intrapreneurship has immense value for the ADF. Let’s explore why, and how you can build on your passion for creativity and innovation within your sphere of influence in Defence." Policy Implications for the Emergence of Artificial Intelligence Via Decision 2020In the twentieth edition of the Decision 2020 Report, Hoover fellows assess the economic, national security, and geopolitical implications of innovations in artificial intelligence (AI). The Yom Kippur War: Much More than an Intelligence Failure By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, September 27, 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Two messages continue to ring out on the eve of the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War. One concerns the severity of the intelligence failure at the time, and the other promises that the right lessons have been learned and the IDF is now prepared for any scenario. When the failure is portrayed as essentially the lack of an intelligence warning, it is easy to promise that it has been diagnosed and remedied in a way that prevent its future recurrence. But an in-depth look at the war shows that the reasons for the fiasco went far beyond the intelligence failure. Continue to full article -> The Long Roots of the Yom Kippur War Debacle By Dr. Hanan Shai, September 27, 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The IDF’s difficulties at the outset of the 1973 Yom Kippur War stemmed from an inherent command flaw rather than an intelligence failure as is commonly believed. The roots of this flaw date back to 1957, when Chief of Staff Moshe Dayan decided on an early retirement age for IDF personnel so as to enable them to embark on a second career. Defense Minister David Ben-Gurion, who saw the dangers of the decision, opposed it but did not use his authority to revoke it. Continue to full article -> Golda Meir: The Civilian Who Exposed Israel's Lack of Preparedness for the 1973 War By Dr. Hanan Shai, October 9, 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Although Israeli PM Golda Meir lacked military knowledge, her questions during government discussions on the eve of the Yom Kippur War exposed the fact that deterrence and early warning, the two cornerstones of Israel’s security conception, had not been adequately addressed. If the IDF officers and the many bithonistim (officials with a security background) in her government had heeded her questions, the war could have gone very differently and perhaps even have been averted. Continue to full article -> Right of Launch: Command and Control Vulnerabilities After a Limited Nuclear Strike By Bruce G. Blair, Sebastien Philippe & Sharon K. Weiner, War on the Rocks: “Imagine a rapidly escalating conflict between Russian and NATO forces. Compensating for Russia’s perceived conventional inferiority, Russian commanders execute a limited nuclear strike — a small number of low-yield weapons intended to change conditions on the battlefield.” China Seems Ready for a Fight Over Taiwan By James Holmes, 1945: "For decades China-watchers have debated what form a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) offensive against Taiwan might take. An onslaught seems to be coming. Saying no to a cross-strait union is not an option Chinese Communist Party (CCP) supremo Xi Jinping means to grant the islanders." The GOP’s foreign policy tribes prepare for battle
Colin Dueck | NationalReview.com Conservatives and Republicans around the country are divided into three distinct groupings or tendencies: foreign policy activists, foreign policy hard-liners, and foreign policy noninterventionists. Full Story
Why Five New National Quantum Information Science Centers Are a Huge Deal
By Paul Dabbar and Darío Gil Through quantum computers, we'll tackle some of the world's greatest challenges, explain Energy Department's Paul Dabbar and IBM Research's Darío Gil.
The Atlantic Council has a handy new hypersonic weapon backgrounder
The Ronald Reagan Institute has a new report about ways to strengthen the U.S. National Security Innovation Base.Among its findings: "Washington has not yet fully adjusted to the new reality that national-security-relevant technologies are largely being driven by the commercial sector—not the USG, the DOD, or even the Aerospace and Defense (A&D) sector, as was true in the past."
Get Ready for a New Type of Israeli War
Jacob Nagel and Jonathan Schanzer— The National Interest A string of credible reports suggest that Israel recently targeted Iranian forces and infrastructure in Syria. Reporters broadly describe these strikes as a continuation of the “War Between Wars,” a campaign whereby Israel erodes the capabilities of its enemies to forestall the next major conflict. In a December interview shortly before he retired, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot revealed that Israel had destroyed thousands of military targets in Syria, taking credit for very few. Read More
Milley Assigns Service Roles In All-Domain Ops Concept
By Theresa Hitchens; Wednesday, July 22, 2020 1:30 PM The Air Force will lead work on the concept for command & control, the Navy will lead joint fires, and the Army has logistics.
There Is No Thucydides Trap Between the U.S. and China
By Richard Hanania, RealClearDefense: “The Thucydides Trap is among the most well-known concepts in international relations. Recently, discussions about the rise of China have invoked the phrase, arguing that the nation's growing economic and military strength potentially puts it on a collision course with the United States."
The Chip Wars of the 21st Century by Steve Blank
5 Reasons James Taiclet Is an Ideal Successor to Lockheed’s Marillyn Hewson
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: “There was a time when the U.S. aerospace and defense sector was dominated by larger-than-life leaders, with egos to match, who frequently took big risks with their shareholders’ money. Those days are long gone." An Expeditionary Support Ship for a Navy-Marine Team By William Stearman, Proceedings: "Marine Corps Commandant General David H. Berger, in his 3 March Force Design 2030 document, expressed the need for “forces that . . . can operate inside an adversary’s long-range weapons engagement zone (WEZ).” General Berger further noted that he does not believe that “forcible entry operations are irrelevant or an anachronism . . . different approaches are required given the proliferation of anti-access/area denial (A2AD) threat capabilities in the mutually contested spaces.”"
CHINA:
Has China Gone Into Stealth Mode With Its Military-Civil Fusion Plans? By Matt Ho, South China Morning Post: "There was no apparent word in this year’s government work report of the defence strategy that has raised alarm in Washington."
Anachronistic Export Policy Is Damaging the U.S. Drone Industry and National Security
By Dave Deptula, Forbes: “Adherence to an obsolescent approach to the international nuclear non-proliferation export guidelines of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) is hurting the United States (U.S.) both commercially and from a national security perspective." 
Pentagon Reshuffles R&D Priorities
By Jon Harper, National Defense Magazine: "The Defense Department is shaking up its list of research-and-development priorities as the Pentagon builds new roadmaps for pursuing future capabilities."
SOCOM’s Hyper-Enabled Operator: Will It Work This Time?
By Paul McLeary, Breaking Defense: “As Special Operations leaders rush new programs to incorporate AI and advanced communications into their intelligence gathering and influence operations around the globe, they want individual soldiers in the field to be a key part of pushing that data."
The Promise and Risks of Artificial Intelligence: A Brief History by Rebecca Slayton
You Can Teach a Marine Deterrence: Understanding Coercion Requires Changing PME by Benjamin Jensen and Matthew Van Echo
On Military Innovation, the More Things Change, the More Things Stay the Same by Paul R. Ignatius
Army Patriot Missile Connects With Air Force F-35 to Destroy Cruise Missile
By Kris Osborn, Warrior Maven: "This kind of warfare development, wherein multiple sensor nodes track and share information across domains to identify and destroy threats, represents the exact intention of the Army’s Integrated Battle Command System (IBCS)."
Michael Dahm writes: China’s strategy for the use of AI technology is evolving from their interpretation of the character of war and is ultimately an extension of the PLA’s informationized warfare concepts. While there is certainly overlap with U.S. military thinking on the use of AI, Chinese military scholars appear to be reaching different conclusions. […]In developing strategies to counter Chinese military capabilities, the Pentagon should pay close attention to the PLA’s evolving warfighting concepts and views on AI in future combat. – War on the Rocks
Dan Blumenthal and Nicolas Eberstadt write: If the current arrangements were overwhelmingly disadvantageous for the U.S., it would be a straightforward matter (albeit painful and unpleasant) just to end them. But this is not the case. Instead we find ourselves in a tableau mainly painted in shades of gray. Careful discrimination and informed judgment will be required to determine whether each of the myriad cords that bind us to China today is actually in the American interest. For each of these cords, domestic U.S. constituencies will be at the ready to make the case that their particular relationship really is. – National Review Institute
Assessing China’s Civil and Military Crisis Response Capabilities
By Hugh Harsono, Divergent Options: "COVID-19 has highlighted China’s strengths in terms of rapid quarantine implementation and mobilizing national-level resources quickly. It has also highlighted failures in China’s bureaucratic nature and failing public health systems and breakdowns on the military front."
How AI will soon change special operations
(Defense One) A new SOCOM office is pursuing tools to understand and influence populations, clear rooms with robots, and spot new forms of jamming
Pentagon legislation aims to end dependence on China for rare earth minerals
(Defense News) The Pentagon has proposed legislation that aims to end reliance on China for rare earth minerals critical to the manufacturing of missiles and munitions, hypersonic weapons and radiation hardened electronics, by making targeted investments.
Think You Know Where Defense Spending Is Headed After Coronavirus?
Guess Again. By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "As in other sectors of the economy, the coronavirus crisis has spawned uncertainty about the future in defense circles. Military planners, think tank analysts and media pundits are all speculating where Pentagon spending may be headed in the aftermath of the worst global pandemic in a century." Neither Manned Nor Unmanned: The Future Of Air Warfare Will Be About Teaming By Dan Gouré, RealClearDefense: "There are three basic types of unmanned “wingmen.” They are distinguishable based on their sophistication (and therefore, by their cost) as well as the role they play in enhancing the capacity of manned systems." Hypersonic Defense Requires Getting Space Sensor System Right By Douglas M. Fraser, Frank Gorenc & John S. Shapland, RealClearDefense: “While the U.S. is rightly focused on combatting the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important for the leaders within Congress and the Pentagon to also prioritize preparing for another threat for which the nation currently has no defense: hypersonic weapons."
Our nation’s defense supply chain imperative
(Defense News) The Department of Defense and defense industry have a long history of responding quickly and forcefully to crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic is no exception.
Army Futures Commander: AI-Driven, 'Hyperactive Battlefield in Future War
By Kris Osborn, Warrior Maven: "Future warfare will be characterized by what the Commander of Army Futures Command calls a “hyperactive battlefield” -- a chaotic, fast-moving mix of complex variables in need of instant analysis as lives….and combat victory...hang in a delicate, hazy balance of uncertainty."
Multiple Reality and the Future of Command and Control
By Robert Clifford, RealClearDefense: "With MR, we can rethink how the U.S. conducts command and control."
Innovating in a Secret World: Can America Innovate Its Way to Security?
By Kurt Degerlund, Strategy Bridge: “Despite the promise of open government innovation, few open innovation projects have been able to produce more than token innovations that solve simple resource maintenance and allocation problems."
What Does AI Mean for the Future of Manoeuvre Warfare?
By Franz-Stefan Gady, IISS: "AI-enabled technologies based on machine learning algorithms that accelerate the so-called ‘kill chain' by linking sensors and shooters in an internet of things or system of systems architecture could have a profound effect on conventional offensive military operations."
The Maritime Patrol Enterprise: Shaping a Kill Web Future
By Robbin Laird, SLD.info: "“We are taking full advantage of the leap forward in many sensors and communications technology to interoperate in ways that were previously impossible. Faced with a resurgent and challenging ASW threat, we have not given up on the old tool sets, but we are adding to them and weaving them into a new approach."" 
China's Supply Chain Threat to U.S. National Security
By Jim Banks, RealClearDefense: "The Chinese government’s mismanagement of the novel coronavirus not only spread the virus worldwide, it shut down many supply chains that the U.S. and other countries had become accustomed to; indeed, that the U.S. deeply relied upon."
A Typology of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency
By Donald Stoker, Military Strategy Magazine: "The literature on insurgency and counterinsurgency is voluminous and this is certainly not the place to discuss it, and wars in which insurgency is the dominant factor are invariably described as “limited.” What we must point out is that much of the writing on these topics is tactical and thus not directly related to our discussion." Germs: The Seventh Domain of Warfare By James G. Foggo III, Proceedings: "To protect our national security, we must improve our ability to fight pandemics—germs, the seventh domain of warfare." Resilience Theatre By Kenneth Weisbrode & Heather H. Yeung, RUSI: “That the post-9/11 era is over, supplanted by a pandemic, is now taken for granted. In the defence and security world, the intellectual fascination with counterinsurgency has long since passed, replaced by ‘great power competition.'"
Toward a New Theory of Power Projection
By Michael J. Mazarr, War on the Rocks: "Now that the pandemic crisis is hammering America’s finances, U.S. strategy risks veering even further into permanent insolvency." Preparing for a Dark Future: Biological Warfare in the 21st Century By Thomas G. Mahnken, RealClearDefense: "News of the spread of COVID-19 aboard the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and the subsequent relief of its Commanding Officer has highlighted the tension that exists between maintaining military readiness and the need to safeguard the health of members of the armed forces in the face of a pandemic."
Defense Department Must Keep R&D on Track
By Connie Lee, National Defense Magazine: “The Defense Department is speeding up early research-and-development efforts by working closely with academia and switching to a distributed research model, which will allow multiple organizations to work on initiatives more easily."
Building a Marine Corps for Every Contingency, Clime, and Place
By T. X. Hammes, War on the Rocks: "The Marine Corps’ efforts to date represent a powerful first step in the process of transforming the force from its current configuration to one more suited to the rapidly changing international security environment."
FVL: See The Army’s Future Scout In Flight
The Army will pick either the Bell 360 Invictus or the Sikorsky Raider-X as its Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft. Get a close-up look at both contenders.
FARA: Sikorsky Touts Cutting-Edge Tech
The Raider-X compound helicopter not only meets the Army’s Future Attack Reconnaissance needs today, Sikorsky FARA director Tim Malia told us: It has the margin for growth “to be a good investment for the taxpayer for decades to come.”
TRISO Nuclear Mini-Reactors Will Be Safe: Program Manager
If the Pentagon does build the mobile reactors, it will deploy them far from the front lines – and even if they’re hit, their revolutionary TRISO fuel pellets will stay intact at temperatures that can melt steel.
Shaping a Way Ahead on Military Strategy:
The Need for Strategic Coherence By Robbin Laird, SLD.info: "With a growing array of single service initiatives designed to compete for “deterrence badges” in the great power competition, there is a clear danger of splintering deterrence rather than reinforcing it."
Is the Infantry Brigade Combat Team Becoming Obsolete?
By Daniel Vazquez, War on the Rocks: "The infantry community has a problem. The centerpiece of the Army's operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the infantry brigade combat team, is in danger of becoming obsolete in the face of near-peer opponents."
China’s Strategy to Reorient U.S. Tech Companies Is Exposed — What Next?
By Alex Gallo, The Hill: "China’s aggressive behavior to outright steal our technological secrets, build a generic version of our technological platforms, and re-orient U.S. tech companies has been exposed, to paraphrase Ernest Hemingway, “slowly... then suddenly.”" Why This Pandemic Is Different By Shlomo Ben-Ami, The Strategist (ASPI): "Long before people and goods were traversing the globe non-stop, pandemics were already an inescapable feature of human civilisation. And the tragedy they bring has tended to have a silver lining: perceived as mysterious, meta-historical events, large-scale disease outbreaks have often shattered old beliefs and approaches, heralding major shifts in the conduct of human affairs. But the Covid-19 pandemic may break that pattern."
The Future of Drugs in War
By Gareth Rice, Grounded Curiosity: "Drugs have a long history in war. In fact, drugs and war may have always existed together in some form, leading Wes O’Donnell to declare that “Wars are rarely fought totally sober.”
Quantum Computers Will Break the Internet, but Only If We Let Them
Quantum computers are expected to be powerful enough to break the current cryptography that protects all digital communications. But this scenario is preventable if policymakers take actions now to minimize the harm that quantum computers may cause. Read more » NO "TIME-OUT" IN FUTURE WARS; FIXING SPECIAL OPERATIONS CULTURE & VERTICAL AIR LIFT IS HERE3/9/2020
A Bottom-Up Approach to Multi Domain Operations
By Andrew Smith, Over the Horizon: "Special Operations missions are rarely confined to a single domain of warfare, making Special Operations Forces (SOF) joint to a degree unseen across the DoD." 
Why We Need A Modern Theory of Special Warfare to Thrive in the Human Domain
by Arnel P. David, Dave Allen, Aleksandra Nesic & Nicholas Krohley, Wavell Room: "Strategies and plans are made, but lack execution or meaningful implementation. This is due, in part, to a state of strategic confusion, wherein ill-defined concepts are being deployed without adequate grounding in a coherent theoretical framework."
Alice Hunt Friend and Shannon Culbertson write: During this period of change, policy guidance on how to implement the NDS and prioritize competing demands will help the SOF community arrest negative readiness trends and help channel into new challenges the innovation and drive for which the community is well known. Policymakers should initiate a rational process to determine the right balance of missions for SOF and then estimate the steps necessary to implement needed investment changes and timelines for implementation. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
All-Domain Ops Require Rethinking Combatant Commands: Goldfein
“This is foundational to who we are,” Goldfein says of the new all-domain operations warfighting concept.
The Future of Tactical Airlift Is Here and It Is Vertical by Walker D. Mills and Dylan “Joose” Phillips-Levin
Future Vertical Lift: Army’s Aerial Vanguard
The Army isn’t just replacing old helicopters. It’s building a networked “ecosystem” of mutually supporting manned and unmanned weapons that can drive a flying wedge into Russian and Chinese air defenses. FARA: Five-Way Fight For Army’s Future Scout AVX/L3, Bell, Boeing, Karem, and Sikorsky have submitted their designs for the Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft. None of them is a conventional helicopter.
Beyond The Black Hawk: Defiant Vs. Valor
After decades of R&D, the race to replace the UH-60 helicopter is entering its last few years. FVL: Zoom In On The Competitors To Replace The Black Hawk Zoom in on the Sikorsky-Boeing and Bell contenders to replace the UH-60 Black Hawk with exclusive photographs.
FVL: Bell, Sikorsky-Boeing Split $181M To Finalize FLRAA Designs
After two years of intensive digital engineering, in 2020 the Army will pick either a Bell tiltrotor or a Sikorsky-Boeing compound helicopter to replace the UH-60 Black Hawk. FLRAA In Flight: Watch The SB>1 Defiant & V-280 Valor In The Air A close-up look at the two competitors to replace the UH-60 Black Hawk. FVL Q&A: 7 Leaders On The Future Of Army Aviation New Future Vertical Lift aircraft are just part of the solution. So are new tactics and technology upgrades for existing helicopters. FVL: Army Picks Bell & Sikorsky For FARA Scout The Bell 360 Invictus and the Sikorsky Raider-X will vie for the final contract to build FARA, with rival prototypes in flight by 2023. Bell and Sikorsky (with Boeing) are also facing off for the FLRAA transport. FVL: The Army’s 10-Year Plan For FARA Scout The Army’s urgently developing new air-launched drones, long-range missiles, and electronic architecture to go on the Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft that Bell and Sikorsky are vying to build.
The City Is Not Neutral: Why Urban Warfare Is So Hard
By John Spencer, Modern War Institute: ““Contrary to what is often supposed, urban warfare is not more difficult than other types of warfare.” That’s what a recent article published in the Texas National Security Review argues. The authors believe, in fact, that urban environments are “neutral,” not to be feared—that, as in almost every other environment, the better-trained and more-professional force should have an advantage. Unfortunately, history does not support this notion of urban terrain’s neutrality, nor do the realities of modern warfare."
Making the Most of Spontaneous Civil Engagement:
An Introduction to the Engaged Awareness Cycle By Andrew J. Bibb, Small Wars Journal: “Civil Affairs (CA) Soldiers, by virtue of their being selected for acceptance into the CA branch, are expected to make the most of every opportunity to improve upon existing relationships and seek to create new opportunities for cooperation in support of U.S. objectives. Consequently, U.S. Army CA doctrine requires that CA Soldiers to be proficient in two tactical tasks: Civil Reconnaissance (CR) and Civil Engagement (CE). The first of these, CR, is always “targeted, planned, and coordinated"[1] and generally not to be conducted in a hasty manner."
Drones, Deniability, and Disinformation: Warfare in Libya and the New International Disorder by Wolfram Lacher
FVL: Zoom In On The Competitors To Replace The Black Hawk
Zoom in on the Sikorsky-Boeing and Bell contenders to replace the UH-60 Black Hawk with exclusive photographs.
Israel's Iran Confrontation Is Pointing the Way to the Future of War by Seth Frantzman
The Hill February 26, 2020 https://www.meforum.org/60482/israel-is-pointing-the-way-to-the-future-of-war
China’s Bid for Maritime Primacy in an Era of Total Competition
By Patrick M. Cronin, CIMSEC: "In this decade, the United States Navy may be displaced as the most formidable maritime presence in the Pacific Ocean. China is determined to challenge America’s ability to project military power forward into the Western Pacific."
Behind Moscow’s Arms Control Offensive
By Stephen A. Blank, Eurasia Daily Monitor: "Russia has a long track record of importuning the United States and its allies regarding arms control treaties and negotiations. But the sentiment Moscow presents to the West is far from altruistic."
The Evolving Role of the Fighter in the Integratable Air Wing:
The View From TOPGUN From SLD.info: "With the developing relationship between sensors and shooters in the maritime kill web, what is the evolving role of the fighter?" Marketing Land Power: Lessons from the Atomic Army to the Present By Joe Buccino, Strategy Bridge: “The U.S. defense budget in 2021 and beyond, already projected to flatten and then trend downward, is certain to take a measurable hit as result of the pandemic. The U.S. Army, in particular, may be a target, with the potential to witness a breathtaking budget and force size reduction, especially should the Pentagon decide to continue to prioritize new technology, new equipment, and new domains."
Weight on the Scales
By Ali Wyne, the interpreter: "Middle powers might seek to balance the U.S. and China, but inevitably their own actions change the equation."
JADC2 and AI Should Enable Post-Pandemic Military Creativity, Not Replace It
By Bryan Clark & Dan Patt, RealClearDefense: "Beyond eliminating war’s fog and friction, Net-Centric Warfare promised efficiency and optimization to make the most of a smaller U.S. military." 
Trump’s National Security Advisor Touts New 'Streamlined' NSC
By David A. Wemer, Atlantic Council: "Less than five months on the job, U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien reported that the National Security Council was in the final stages of a reorganization that would get it “back to a manageable size.”"
Fog, Friction, and Thinking Machines by Zach Hughes
The New Spheres of Influence
By Graham Allison, Foreign Affairs: “In the heady aftermath of the Cold War, American policymakers pronounced one of the fundamental concepts of geopolitics obsolete."
An Assessment of U.S. Leadership Potential in Asia via the TPP
By Heather Marie Stur, Divergent Options: “The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) enables the U.S. to assert leadership in the Asia-Pacific region. Although U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the TPP, he indicated in 2018 that he would consider returning to the alliance."
With U.S. Afghan Exit, Russia Eyes Central Asian Security
By Azima Akhmatova, the interpreter: "While commentators have written extensively about the pros and cons of the U.S.-Taliban deal, the ramifications for the security stance of Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours in Central Asia have been largely overlooked."
Algorithmic Warfare: Defense Department’s AI Posture ‘Challenged’
By Yasmin Tadjdeh, Defense One: "While artificial intelligence has become a top priority within the Pentagon, a new report by the RAND Corp. has found that the Defense Department has shortcomings in its AI posture."
The ABCs of AI-Enabled Intelligence Analysis by Iain J. Cruickshank
 The Pitfalls and Possibilities of the Measurement Revolution for National Security by Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, Liam Collins, Kristen G. DeCaires, and Jacob N. Shapiro France's Counterterrorism Efforts in West Africa and the Sahel with Michael Shurkin The Future of Underwater Warfare in the Indo-Pacific By H I Sutton & Franz-Stefan Gady, The Diplomat: "The oceans have not gotten any smaller, and actually anti-submarine warfare is under-invested and under-rehearsed in most navies it seems." The Case for Killing Soleimani—A Lesson in Deterrence By Norman Friedman, Proceedings: "Soleimani’s death is about deterrence. The drone strike that killed him suggests the U.S. government has finally concluded that the only deterrent that matters to Iran is a threat to undermine the regime by knocking away its key support—the IRGC–QF." ISRAEL: Assessing Israel’s Tactical Laser Breakthrough By Jacob Nagel, Bradley Bowman & Liane Zivitski, Defense News: “Until recently, the military application of relatively high-energy lasers has been more science fiction than reality. That is starting to change." We Must Win Today’s War for Talent By John Nowell & Daniel Stefanus, Proceedings: "Our nation faces the greatest military challenges since the fall of the Soviet Union. A quick flip through recent issues of Proceedings will turn up a sea of references to “Great Power Competition,” and, more specifically, Russia and China." 5 Reasons the Army’s Formula for Modernization Might Work By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "The news from the U.S. Army last week is that it is cancelling a replacement for its venerable Bradley fighting vehicle. This will strike some observers as a repetition of past missteps on the road to a more modern vehicle fleet, but it really isn't." The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has launched its newest foray into unleashing robot warships on the world’s seas: NOMARS. No, it’s not in reference to the former Red Sox standout infielder Nomar Garciaparra. The acronym stands for “No Manning Required, Ship,” and it’s part of DARPA’s plan to take its Sea Hunter drone ship a step further. The idea is to design a ship from the keel up that will never have a human on board. – Defense News The first CMV-22B Osprey – the tiltrotor aircraft selected to replace the Navy’s aging fleet of C-2A Greyhounds as the carrier onboard delivery aircraft – completed its first flight operations, according to its manufacturer. – USNI News
The Army is going back to the drawing board for the fourth time on the much-delayed $45 billion program to replace the Bradley Fighting Vehicle, Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville said Tuesday. – Military.com |
WHAT REPLACES THE 3RD OFFSET
NEW MILITARY TECHNOLOGIES 2017
HOW ENGLAND REVERSED DECLINE
LIMITS OF TECHNOLOGY FOR WAR
OPTIMAL FRAMEWORK FOR SPECIAL OPERATORS & BETWEEN WAR-PEACE, THE GRAY ZONE
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