STATE OF THE NATION - PraetoriumStrategy.com

the state of u.s. economy; UN-EMPLOYABLE

8/8/2024

Grading the Negative Rate Experiment

Beyond the US, Lachman writes that the global economy is awash in debt. He warns that exceedingly high debt across the world’s major economies heightens the chances of not one but multiple debt crises in the next few years. Are we entering a new space age and atomic age? If so, could this usher in a new era of rapid and sustained productivity growth?

James Pethokoukis reviews recent trends in productivity growth and considers the US economy’s future.

THE HULK vs. OPRAH

Unemployable
A growing number of Americans aren’t simply out of a job. They’re no longer fit for work.
/ Read here

Growth and Productivity in the Americas

What’s Been Driving the US Productivity Surge?
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas

America’s Debt Emergency
Data in a new CBO report give cause for alarm about our fiscal future.
/ Read here

The Morlocks Come Out in London
England’s ongoing riots reveal a dissolving society.
/ Read here

GE & BOEING; WHY MANHATTAN INSTITUTE 'CITY JOURNAL' MATTERS

4/8/2024

SOCIAL MOBILITY & THE WORKING CLASS

Brian Riedl disputes claims that uncapping the Social Security tax would deliver a fairer or more solvent social safety net.

“It’s an Empty Executive Suite”
An insider explains what has gone disastrously wrong with Boeing.
/ Read here

A Generational Calculus
More Gen Zers are opting to live with their parents to cut costs—a choice that makes individual financial sense but may bring negative effects more broadly.
/ Read here

McKinsey’s Diversity Fog
The consulting giant touts its studies purporting to show that race- and gender-conscious hiring leads to greater profits—but it likely has the causation backward.
/ Read here

Reel in the Agencies
Even if the Supreme Court proves unwilling to repeal its Chevron doctrine, it should reverse a rule crippling private fisheries.
/ Read here

Inflation Figures and the Real World
Why the official numbers might not reflect the cost-of-living increases we feel when we pay our bills
/ Read here

Modernity’s Launching Pad
Intellectual ferment and openness to ideas—good and bad—made Vienna a focal point for social and historical change.
/ Read here

Ready for Freedom?
A new book proposes reestablishing responsible and accountable authority.
/ Read here

The Wrong Tool for the Job
Hiking the minimum wage will neither enhance economic mobility nor alleviate poverty.
/ Read here

Gotham: The Fall and Rise of New York
An Inside Look at America’s Greatest Turnaround
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The Fast Casual Society
Our abandonment of standards of dress means the loss of expressive potential and our sense of occasion.
/ Read here

YAHOO FINANCE; U.S. NEEDS TO LOOK AT GERMANY, SOUTH KOREA TO FIND MANUFACTURING FUTURE

WHAT IS PROFIT

BEYOND LEFT & RIGHT

2/11/2024

CAN THE U.S. RETURN TO BEING A REPUBLIC? XI CONTROLS ILLICIT DRUGS INTO THE U.S.

10/30/2023

fractures_in_the_regime_-_the_american_mind.pdf
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How Much Does $100 Billion In Federal Spending Cost You?

The Other Crises Demanding Our Attention

Obamacare and other government schemes have proved costly and ineffective.
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America has racked up more inflation-adjusted deficit spending since 2009 than in the 220 years before then—with no end in sight.
/ Read here

EMPLOYMENT RATES, GROWTH

Experts have proposed forming a targeted policy commission aimed at tackling budget deficits,

Governor Kathy Hochul and Mayor Eric Adams should use their upcoming executive budgets to reverse a long slide into economic irrelevance.
/ Read here

National Conservatives hoped to rebuild the Republican Party on a platform that was economically liberal and socially conservative. It didn't work.
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REBUILDING THE AMERICAN RIGHT AFTER REAGAN & RUSH DEPARTED; U.S. CHINESE ECONOMIC RELATIONS STILL MATTER; FIXING BROKE ENTITLEMENTS

9/10/2023

REBUILDING THE AMERICAN RIGHT

False Directions
julia r. cartwright

ac-rebuilding-american-capitalism_digital.pdf
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The portrayal of women in Love’s Labour’s Lost has many valuable lessons for the Old and New Right.
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As debate continues to rage over the future of US-China trade relations, Neena Shenai offers insight into the different tools at the United States’ disposal for securing strong leverage against the Chinese economy.

Shenai looks beyond short-term measures, such as sanctions and investment restrictions, as the best ways of combating Chinese global influence. Instead, she suggests that a return to free-market values and a commitment to getting America’s political and economic house in order could be the key to the US maintaining its position as the global economic powerhouse it has proven itself to be.

One short-term measure gaining significant traction is an increase in industrial policy, a stance that former President Donald Trump articulated in his recent proposal to enact a 10 percent tariff on all foreign imports. Kyle Pomerleau takes a look at this proposal and discusses why it is rooted in a misunderstanding of how tariffs affect trade. Fewer imports would lead to fewer exports, leaving the US with lower economic output.

At the core of these trade discussions lies the question of how much China’s ongoing economic turmoil will affect the global economy. Desmond Lachman writes that any belief that China’s woes will not affect other nations is naïve. In particular, Lachman argues that Jerome Powell and the Fed must recognize that China’s economic crisis will most definitely harm the global market.

Who Killed Retirement Security?

The Day the Social Security Funding Crisis Became Inevitable

A Fiscal Crisis—and What It Will Take to Avoid It—Come into View

Phil Gramm and Mike Solon discuss the problems inherent in Social Security’s pay-as-you-go system, writing that without the allocation of private investments and the power of compound interest, Social Security is doomed to fail.

James Capretta and Jack Rowing dive into the nuts and bolts of a recent medium-sized health care bill that the House passed with remarkable bipartisan support. While the bill makes various changes to health care spending, Capretta and Rowing suggest its overall impact will be minimal at best.

SURGING CHINESE NATIONALISTS ON U.S. SOUTHERN BORDER; HOW THE AMERIKAN REGIME RESEMBLES MOSCOW ET AL. . .

8/7/2023

Turkey's Islamist Rulers Expand Their Influence Operations in U.S.
by Abdullah Bozkurt
Nordic Monitor
August 3, 2023
https://www.meforum.org/64660/turkey-islamist-rulers-expand-their-influence

Delivering the Army of 2030

Lessons Learned of Lessons Observed: The U.S. Navy’s Relationship with Mine Warfare

Chinese Surprise About Wagner's Mutiny,

Medicaid’s Dark Money
How states launder funds to evade program rules
/ Read here

Freedom, Western Tradition, & “The Unbroken Thread”
Positivism and Globalism

FIXING HEALTH CARE

7/22/2023

current issue (#86) of Strategika .

10 Health Care Ideas for No One in Particular
James C. Capretta | RealClearPolicy
With the Republican primary in full swing, James Capretta describes what a better agenda for health policy—one focused on driving costs down and promoting consumer choice—would look like.
Read more.

Turkey: Difficult Partner, Vital Ally

Reading Publius in his proper historical context allows us to understand both his strengths and his limitations.
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We Should Take China’s Biotech Seriously

How Xi Jinping’s Policies Could Lead China to Economic Implosion

The Ongoing War in Sudan,

Most Read War on the Rocks Articles of All Time,

The change and disruption over recent decades may suggest the rise of a new political order. But not everything is as new as it seems.
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By ceding literature, the arts, and culture to the left, conservatives lost the ability to influence society's moral vision.
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How Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Is Changing

THE BORDER AS DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY & AN EMPIRE OF LIES, U.S. NEWS MEDIA CREDIBILITY DONE

5/16/2023

The Road to Israel-Saudi Normalization Runs Through Washington
Richard Goldberg – MosaicSaudi Arabia’s crown prince reportedly told senior U.S. officials earlier this month that he is prepared to normalize the kingdom’s relations with Israel as part of a broader reset in relations between Riyadh and Washington. Read More

In Brief: The Fentanyl Crisis

BRINGING BACK U.S. MANUFACTURING

4/13/2023

CFR: US MEXICO RELATIONS

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Technology, Defense, And American-Chinese Competition

DAVID GOLDMAN, CLAREMONT INSTITUTE

DiSalvo and Jordan McGillis dive deep into the facts and figures underlying the ballooning pension obligations for our country’s superstar cities.

Uncertainty and Inflation
By Allison SchragerPolicymakers take comfort that longer term inflation expectations still hover around 2%. That seems to suggest that eventually the pre-pandemic low inflation/low interest rate world will soon return and the Fed still has the credibility it needs to conduct monetary policy.
READ HERE

Mind the Middle Powers,

The Fed should heed the IMF’s credit-crunch warning before throwing us into a hard economic landing
Judging by its latest World Economic Report, the International Monetary Fund is well aware of credit-cycle risks.

It’s Time for a New Nuclear Posture Review by Robert Peters

Here Are the 7 Biggest Revelations From the U.S. Leaks So Far

Stress Testing American Grand Strategy II: Critical Assumptions and Great-Power Rivalry
Hal Brands, Peter D. Feaver, and William Inboden | American Enterprise Institute

Iran–Saudi Arabia Rapprochement Threatens to Upend US-Led Regional Order
Sahar Soleimany | AEIdeas

MONEY MATTERS, U.S. FISCAL REALITIES

3/3/2023

FIRST MARRIAGE THEN MORTGAGE

THE COST OF FREE MONEY

STEVEN MALANGA
The More Some States Spend . . .

Medicare And Social Security: Tackle Them Now
by David R. Henderson via Defining Ideas
The budget crunch is real. Fortunately, there are also real ways to master it.

Strengthening the Social Security Safety Net

Budget deficits continue to soar in Washington as the President proposes yet another tax increase. As a reminder, the Treasury Department has projected that the government will breach the debt limit around the third quarter of this year. In his latest for National Review, MI’s Brian Riedl notes that eye-watering deficits no longer generate much fanfare. He explores the implications of the latest CBO projections, including their impact on funding for Medicare and Social Security.

The war in Ukraine isn’t just about Ukraine

Issue Brief: Supply-Side Solutions to Boost Growth and Lower Inflation
Allison Schrager & Brian Riedl, Manhattan Institute

An Opening for Market-Based Health Reform

How to Create a Better Consumer Market for US Health Care

Hemorrhaging Losses, the Fed’s Problems Are Now the Taxpayer’s
Paul H. Kupiec and Alex J. Pollock | Hill

The Federal Reserve is technically insolvent, yet due to taxpayer support, it will still issue billions in new interest-bearing liabilities. Paul H. Kupiec and Alex J. Pollock write that this deceptive tactic allows the Fed, without congressional authorization, to borrow taxpayer money to cover its losses without the borrowing or losses showing on the federal government’s ledgers. They recommend that this issue, among others, be addressed in the Fed’s next congressional appearance.

Capretta explains how both parties’ budgetary strategies are unrealistic and overlook the severity of the nation’s fiscal outlook.

Capretta and David N. Bernstein outline four additional changes to the existing price transparency rules issued by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services to improve incentives for consumers to shop for services based on price.

Democrats and Republicans Are Both Deluded About the Nation’s Fiscal Outlook

State of the Marine Corps 2023

Signs of Geopolitical Sanity at National Review
By Francis P. Sempa, RealClearDefense: “Ever since William F. Buckley, Jr. and his immediate successor John O’Sullivan left the helm at National Review, the once leading journal of conservatism has lost its way, especially in its coverage of foreign policy issues and its reflexive anti-Trumpism. Under editor Rich Lowry’s leadership, National Review . . ."

James L. Buckley at 100
Matthew Continetti | National Review
On March 9, one of the few people to have served in high positions in all three branches of the federal government will celebrate his 100th birthday.
Full Story

Clausewitz’s Analysis Resonates to This Day
By Alexander S. Burns, The National Interest: “A recently translated text by Clausewitz coincidentally describes an eighteenth-century Russian war in Ukraine and Crimea, which can impart lessons for contemporary students of strategy."

If China’s Push on Somaliland Works, Who Might Be Beijing’s Next Target?
Michael Rubin | 19fortyfive.com

The China Consensus: Do Almost Nothing
Derek Scissors | AEIdeas

A More Hawkish China Policy? Five Takeaways from the House Committee’s Inaugural Hearing on Confronting Beijing
Michael Beckley | Conversation

CLASS WARFARE & ELECTIONS

2/7/2023

“Surging” hiring has not resulted in a resurgence of working-age men returning to the workforce. Companies continue to struggle filling empty roles, creating a “major hole” in the economy.

Americans and Brits alike should be careful not to learn the wrong lessons from the Truss premiership.
READ MORE ›

Victor Davis Hanson: How To Balkanize A Country

Anarchy, American-Style
by Victor Davis Hanson via American GreatnessThe Left runs Oceania, and we work for their various bureaus.

Reinvigorating America’s Commercial Republic
by Peter Berkowitz via Real Clear Politics
The left once possessed a near-monopoly on the critique of economic freedom. The bourgeoisie exploited the proletariat, according to Karl Marx’s classic condemnation, and the profit motive degraded property owners even as labor produced little for the laborer but physical misery and spiritual alienation.

To fully appreciate the controversy over Chevron, one must confront the dubious constitutional status of the administrative state.
READ MORE ›

BIDEN & DOCUMENTS MYSTERY; BERLIN CANNOT DECIDE ON WAR POLICY

1/26/2023

AMERICAN GREATNESS, VICTOR HANSEN ON AMERICAN FRAGILITY

CHARLES MURRY ON DIVERSITY & ITS LIMITS

1/20/2023

AEI DIVERSITY & ITS LIMITS

ENTITLEMENT REFORMS & THE FEDERAL RESERVE

1/13/2023

We Will Regret Our Missed Opportunities to Reform Social Security
Why Entitlement Reform Is So Hard

Can We Really Trust the Federal Reserve?

What Went Wrong in Britain
by daniel patterson
Americans and Brits alike should be careful not to learn the wrong lessons from the Truss premiership.
READ MORE ›

MEI’s Marie Abdi: The Iran protests and US policy on Tehran’s nuclear program

HAYAK & FRIEDMAN TALK RECESSION 2023

1/8/2023

AMAZON

ISOLATIONISM & THE GOP

1/8/2023

THE MYTH OF INCOME INEQUALITY & A LOOK AT U.S. HEALTH-CARE

12/16/2022

We Will Regret Our Missed Opportunities to Reform Social Security
Andrew G. Biggs | National Review
More modest fixes to Social Security in the past would have brought the program to solvency. Now extreme, uncomfortable action is a virtual certainty.

MI’s Chris Pope provides insight into the country’s five co-operating healthcare systems. Steps to aligning these systems, such as breaking down barriers between individual- and employer-sponsored coverage, would empower consumers while managing costs.

An Opening for Market-Based Health Reform

Iran Deepens Its Presence Inside Latin America

The War for Eight Billion Minds

Are income stagnation and inequality serious threats to economic prosperity in the US? Michael R. Strain debunks this popular myth and explains how recent data prove wages and incomes have grown over the past several decades.

Desmond Lachman warns that although an economic slowdown in China may lower the United States’ inflation rate, there’s a good chance that it will also push the global economy toward a serious economic recession.

James Pethokoukis considers potential trends for worldwide economic growth and what the United States must do to keep up as the tricentennial of American independence approaches.

Lachman explains why the Biden administration’s irresponsible fiscal policy, paired with a few monetary policy missteps by the Federal Reserve, has gotten the US economy into deep trouble.

Implementing Competitive Bidding in the Medicare Program: An Expressway to Solvency

Price Transparency 2.0: Helping Patients Identify and Select Providers of High-Value Medical Services

In a new AEI Economic Perspectives report, James C. Capretta and David N. Bernstein envision how policymakers can translate "bipartisan support for transparent health care prices into savings for patients and taxpayers." Capretta and Bernstein argue that recent federal price transparency rules need further reform to support consumer choice in the health care market. They outline a number of possible reforms, including universal access to posted prices and standardizing bundles of health care services. "Patients can become the driving force behind less expensive medical care," the coauthors conclude, "if the market is structured to allow them to easily identify low-cost and high-quality care based on credible pricing and outcome data."

How Do Rising US Interest Rates Affect Emerging and Developing Economies?

Joe Biden and the Fed Have Completely Ruined the US Economy

Star Power: What the Stunning Nuclear-Fusion Breakthrough Really Means
James Pethokoukis | Faster, Please!

Labor’s Lost
In America today, we have informal labor cartels for the college-educated elite, while private sector unions for the working class are all but annihilated
BY MICHAEL LIND

WHY GLOBAL STAGFLATION IS HERE

10/24/2022

WHAT HEALTH CARE REFORM LOOKS LIKE

10/19/2022

What Can Be Done to Make Health Care More Efficient?
James C. Capretta | Dispatch
Excellent medical care is common in the US, but it is provided amid all-too-evident dysfunction. The fundamental problem is the absence of discipline and accountability. James C. Capretta outlines several reforms that would make the American health care system far more efficient.
Full Story

If You Think the Deficit Is Bad Now, It Will Soon Get Worse
Mark J. Warshawsky | Hill
In July, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that the federal government budget deficit would be 3.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023. The author's rough calculation is that the 2023 deficit will come in at 6.4 percent of GDP, or nearly 70 percent higher than the CBO projection.

Four Steps the Pentagon Can Take to Fix the Munitions Industrial Base
John G. Ferrari | Hill

INFLATION GRINDS AWAY ON AMERICANS

8/29/2022

Victor Davis Hanson: To Bring Down A House Of Cards

Alex Pollock’s insightful essay

THE GREAT INFLATION

Can Congress Rein in the Fed?
by alexander william salter
The Fed should have a single mandate, one focused on keeping steady the demand side of the economy.
READ MORE ›

Restoring The Fed’s Credibility?
by andrew stuattaford
Paul Volcker would have been appalled by the Fed's complacent reaction to growing inflation last year, a blunder that damaged the bank's credibility.
READ MORE

The Federal Reserve's Operating Losses and the Federal Budget Deficit
With the Federal Reserve on track to record operating losses for the first time since 1915, Paul H. Kupiec and Alex J. Pollock anticipate what those losses will mean for the federal deficit. "The economic reality, of course, is that Fed losses increase the government's deficit," write Kupiec and Pollock, but they also explain why the Federal Reserve's unique privileges make these losses harder to measure.

Iran Deal - Reportedly "Off the Table" - Would Not Have Prevented a War

Rajan Underlines Why Even Growth Needs A Liberal Democracy
New Book On The Fed And Recent Monetary Policy

China’s Property-Market Party Is Over
Desmond Lachman | National Review

Deal or No Deal, Israel Must Restore a Credible Military Threat

A REPUBLIC, IF WE CAN KEEP IT: THE CRIMINALIZATION OF POLITICAL DIFFERENCES

8/17/2022

THE FED FLYING BLIND

7/27/2022

THE STATUS OF NEWSPAPERS IN USA

7/18/2022

ANDREY MIR
How the Media Polarized Us
The shift from ad revenue to the pursuit of digital subscriptions has turned journalism into post-journalism.

Recent histories of America's two political parties show what it takes to win a governing majority.
READ MORE ›

A strategy of détente with Russia and China would buy the United States time to rebuild its technological and military capabilities.
READ MORE ›

Empire Imagined
Giselle Donnelly | State University of New York Press
Empire Imagined, Giselle Donnelly’s upcoming book, offers a unique perspective for understanding the current debate about America’s role in the world. Reviewing the history of the Elizabethan age and its ties to the American colonial experience, Donnelly traces the origins of the United States’s distinct approach to war and military power.

Middle East Defense Agreements Need Clear Objectives
Clara Keuss | RealClearWorld

THE HEARTLAND & MANUFACTURING

6/28/2022

Heartland Manufacturing Renaissance

Tocqueville’s Worst Fears

The pseudonymous "Paracelsus" argues that America's medical system is profoundly and perhaps irretrievably broken.
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The Establishment Clause has long been used to systematically secularize American society. Those days appear to be over.
READ MORE ›

BIDEN AFTER YEAR 1: INSECURITY AND VANITY

2/25/2022

Fixing Our Health Care System

Time to integrate State Partnership Program in Pentagon planning

Jacquelyn Schneider: China's Cyber Capabilities: Warfare, Espionage, And Implications For The United States

Stephen Kotkin: Which Sanctions Would Hurt Putin The Most?

U.S. Fed Could Start Normalizing Monetary Policy, Says India's Former Central Bank Chief Raghuram Rajan

Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine May Supercharge Nuclear Proliferation

The Naval Brief: 500-ship Navy? Messaging choke point; Ship repairs; and more...

THE FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE REVOLUTION
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THE COMING STORM
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A CRITIQUE OF THE NEW RIGHT
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RUSSELL KIRK'S TRAGIC SENSE OF LIFE
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AMERICA'S ATOMIC HABITS
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DARK FORCES 21st CENTURY
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THE MANY OF DEATHS OF LIBERALISM
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AN ECONOMIC AGENDA FOR THE NEXT PRESIDENT

AMERICA'S COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE

IRREGULAR ORDER I; BREAKING THE DEEP STATE
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IRREGULAR ORDER II
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REBUILDING AMERICAN CAPITALISM
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THE ARISTOCRACY IN DEMOCRACY
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DESTRUCTIVE DE-COUPLING FROM CHINA
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HOW US RETURNS MANUFACTURING: GOLDMAN
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Peter Berkowitz: America A Commercial Republic

HOW TO FIX BROKEN CITIES
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HENRY OLSON: POLITICAL DEMOGRAPHY

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