STATE OF THE NATION - PraetoriumStrategy.com

WHAT TRUMP GOT RIGHT IN 2017, IDEAS DEMS WANT FOR 2020 & HOW TRUMP WINS YEAR TWO

12/27/2017

Here are the ideas Democrats will fight about in 2020
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas

Looking Ahead To Trump's Year Two
by Bruce Thornton via FrontPage Mag.com
A glance at the biggest challenges -- and how to surmount them.

Significant Accomplishments For GOP And Trump In 2017
by Lanhee J. Chen via Townhall
It’s been an eventful year in American politics, but don’t let the hype distract from the reality. It’s also been a year of significant accomplishments for the Republican Congress and, yes, President Donald Trump.

What Trump Got Right in Foreign Policy in 2017 // Andrew Exum
For one thing, the Islamic State is largely defeated.

The battle between localism and the politics of abstraction
Ryan Streeter | The American Project
The Scottish philosopher David Hume wrote, “Parties from principle, especially abstract speculative principle, are known only to modern times, and are, perhaps, the most extraordinary and unaccountable phenomenon that has appeared in human affairs.” He observed that factions in the modern era had started behaving in ideological ways. Hume’s observation is a useful insight into the kinds of division and polarization that characterize the American political landscape today.

HOW THE STATES KEEP OBAMACARE

12/27/2017

NYSUN

Uncompensated care and the collapse of the hospital payment regulation: An illustration of the Tinbergen rule
Jeffrey Clemens and Benedic N. Ippolito | AEI Economics Working Paper Series

Bringing market discipline to health care is complex, difficult, and necessary
James C. Capretta | AEI Economic Perspectives

A better (but modest) case for high-risk pools
Thomas P. Miller and Mark V. Pauly | American Enterprise Institute

MICHAEL BARONE ON BUDGET RULES, DEFICITS & FISCAL CONTROL

12/26/2017

Will Republicans reform the budget rules next?
Michael Barone | Washington Examiner

Blame entitlements — not the tax bill — for blowing up the deficit
James C. Capretta | Real Clear PolicyJames Capretta argues that blaming the GOP tax plan for our country’s fiscal troubles ignores the role entitlement spending plays in crowding out available resources. Left unchecked, entitlement spending will overwhelm the federal government in coming years — regardless of what unfolds with tax cuts. Capretta argues that it would be better for the economy if the GOP followed up the tax legislation with bills containing serious entitlement reforms that would narrow future deficits by amounts that are larger than the tax cuts.

Obamacare’s failed cost controls
Joseph Antos and James C. Capretta | The Wall Street Journal
Joseph Antos and James Capretta argue that despite the Obama administration’s claim that the Affordable Care Act would help reduce health care costs, recent data show that national spending per capita on health care has grown somewhat faster during the past six years. The authors believe that the key provisions of the law that were supposed to produce savings and efficiencies either have not worked or will never be implemented. Contrary to what was promised, the cost curve for health care has been bent, but in the wrong direction.

The bleak long-run outlook: US fiscal policy and how to improve it
Alex Brill | The Macdonald-Laurier Institute
Alex Brill addresses the impending federal debt crisis facing the United States. Brill argues that when reform occurs, the specific actions undertaken will have meaningful effects on the long-run course of the US economy. For example, unanticipated and large tax increases may induce a recession, while a gradual reduction in entitlement spending for future generations may encourage workers to increase their savings rate and foster long-run growth.

The concentration and persistence of health care spending
Thomas P. Miller | CATO Regulation Magazine

E21: ANSWERING CRITICS OF TAX REFORM

HOW LIBERALISM DESTROYS THE MIDDLE CLASS

12/13/2017

https://www.amazon.com/Revolt-Against-Masses-Liberalism-Undermined/dp/1594036985

A limited, energetic government
Michael R. Strain | National ReviewIn his recently published National Review essay, Michael Strain makes a case for a limited, energetic government. He observes that economics and culture have collided to create our current populist movement -- something that is significantly affecting the economic policy debate. He argues that conservatives must champion anew their basic values, principles, and priorities and the economic policies that flow from them to challenge the economic challenges facing the country. Strain underlies policies that can serve as basic principles to have a strong commitment to individual liberty, the free enterprise system, economic opportunity, and personal responsibility.

The SALT deduction and the cartelization of the compound republic
Benjamin Zycher | AEIdeas

BAILING OUT PENSION PLANS

12/13/2017

Don’t Make Taxpayers Bail Out Pension Plans
Charles Blahous, E21
Reports are that America’s pension plans may be on the agenda as President Trump and the Congressional leadership work out an end-of-year deal to keep the government running beyond the two-week stopgap measure passed last week. It is yet unclear what such pension discussions might involve, but the financial stakes in this policy area are enormous. Massive underfunding currently threatens the solvency of workplace pension plans, in turn threatening pensioners with severe benefit cuts, employer sponsors with crushing obligations, and insolvency of the entire pension insurance system operated by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). Read more here....

THE COMING PENSION BAILOUT MESS

CONSCIENCE, GEORGE WASHINGTON & RAY MOORE; WHY TRUMP SHOULD FIRE THE SPECIAL PROSECUTOR

12/13/2017

NY SUN

NY SUN

WHAT SHOULD TRUMP'S NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY LOOK LIKE?

12/12/2017

"Key take-aways from the new National Defense Strategy included:
1. The US Defense establishment would return, after almost two decades, to a recognizable military mission, and would rebuild its forces, its defense-related R&D, its doctrine, and its capabilities in line with the trajectory it had been on until the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the US, but taking into account the decline in its force structure caused by the 18-year diversion to the CT mission, and taking into account the totally transformed geopolitical and technological context;

2. To emphasize the geopolitical shift in the “competition” spectrum, the US had downgraded NATO to the second tier of its strategic alliance structures and raised to the first tier its existing and emerging alliances in the Indo-Pacific. This, by default, means the ANZUS Alliance (with Australia and New Zealand), its Japan and Republic of Korea alliances, and the emerging "Quadripartite" alliance structure linking the US with Japan, Australia, and India. Unspoken, but critical within this approach, would be — as Pres. Trump had already made clear — improved security relations with key ASEAN states and the Republic of China (ROC: Taiwan). The fact that the US has now moved to the “Indo-Pacific” contextual view, as opposed to the “Asia-Pacific” view was confirmed and important; it signals a shift in thinking1;

3. The Defense Dept. would substantially reorganize to improve flexibility, efficiency, and innovation, including improved relationship with private sector contractors. Indeed, private sector enthusiasm for working with Defense had essentially evaporated in recent years, with the exception of committed major contractors, because of the bias, difficulty, and bureaucratic morass which caused defense contracting to become something for most firms — particularly small-to-medium businesses — to avoid;

4. The document, apart from a few, non-substantive jingoistic comments, was low key and professional and, if anything, played down the fact that it represented a total transformation of the US defense capability. Sec. Mattis presumably did not want the document to inspire concern among “competitors”, or for allies to think that the new strategic posture was anything other than a return to historical continuity;

5. The Strategy highlighted that Defense would act more frequently within an inter-agency context — a “whole-of-government” framework — rather than as a purely military instrument. This was particularly evident in the one brief paragraph devoted to the Western Hemisphere. “Supporting the US interagency lead, the Department will deepen its relations with regional countries that contribute military capabilities to shared regional and global security challenges,” it said, leaving open and ambiguous how the US would deal with the substantial growth of PRC strategic (but non-military) projection into the Caribbean and much of South and Central America;

6. With regard to Africa, the message was subtle, but clear: the Defense Dept would work to counter, among other things, “trans-national criminal activity, and illegal arms trade with limited outside assistance; and limit the malign influence of non-African powers”. This phrasing clearly — but without naming names — emphasized the PRC’s “malign influence”, but also that of Turkey, which has emerged as a key driver of the illegal arms trade. But the Africa remarks indicated that the US would work with local partners and the European Union (EU), presumably including the United Kingdom;

7. The document did not seek to raise any undue expectations that the US would re-surge into the Middle East, but, rather, would build in its small bases and successes there to, among other things, “counterbalance” Iran, without mentioning the other competitive forces operating in the area: the PRC, Russia, and Turkey; 8. The Strategy was notably more gracious and accommodating about US alliances

A TOUGH NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY: BREAKING DEFENSE

Needed: A National Security Strategy Rooted in Geopolitics
By Francis P. Sempa, RealClearDefense: “While such strategies manifest to some extent the worldviews of the president and his top advisors, prudent statesmen steeped in history recognize that, as Bismarck said, “man cannot control the current of events, he can only float with them and steer.””

President Donald Trump’s new National Security Strategy lays out a world where America is locked in global economic competition with both partners and potential adversaries. - Defense News

Trump's National Security Strategy: 10 Big Priorities
By Colin Dueck, The National Interest: “In this year and beyond, when it comes to U.S. foreign policy, consider focusing on the signal—not the noise.”

Trump tells China: America will not be challenged
Dan Blumenthal | The Hill
The Trump administration has crafted a strong and comprehensive new National Security Strategy. It recognizes that the fundamental driver of contemporary geopolitics is a Sino-American rivalry. Indeed, the US is a tad late to the game: China has viewed the US as its chief rival since the end of the Cold War. To be sure, identifying China as a competitor is not a radical departure from the past. But this document is different.

Trump’s National Security Strategy marks return to realism
NORMAN A. BAILEY

5 Things You Should Know About Trump's New National Security Strategy
By Jamie McIntyre, Washington Examiner: “The document, said to run 70 pages, is more than twice as long as the previous strategy document published by the Obama administration in 2015. It is an attempt to flesh out the president’s vision of U.S. foreign policy, which he has shorthanded as “America first.””

Trump's Security Strategy and the New Nuclear World
By Evan Moore, RealClearDefense: “The Trump administration will release its National Security Strategy on Monday, December 18. This white paper, required by the 1986 Goldwater-Nichols Act, is the most authoritative guide to America’s allies and adversaries alike about the administration’s approach to foreign policy. Likewise, the Pentagon is also scheduled to release its Nuclear Posture Review by the end of the year, which outlines what the role of America’s nuclear weapons in its overall strategy should be. These reports will shed critical light on the White House’s strategic worldview and how the administration will seek to address the rapid deterioration of the global nuclear nonproliferation regime."

Trump offers a daring program to restore US dominance
BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN
US President proposes a muscular kind of global activism, fostering new alliances while reinforcing America’s existing commitments; plus a layered missile defence shield

ANALYSIS: U.S. STRATEGIC ENVIROMENT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY

ALLIANCE FRAMEWORK: DEFENSE ONE

MEF: RESTORING REALISM

Trump’s national security strategy and China
Oriana Skylar Mastro | China File

Trump's National Security Strategy Offers Stark Vision
By Matthew Lee, AP: “China, for example, is to be chided for allegedly manipulating the rules-based international economic order for its own advantage and Russia for campaigns to disrupt democratic processes in former Soviet states, Europe and the U.S.”

What Should Trump's National Security Strategy Look Like?
By James Jay Carafano, The National Interest: “The Trumpian tweets and off-hand Oval Office comments have been notoriously unhelpful for those trying to divine the administration’s actual policies. Foreign friends and foes alike will use the strategy as a measuring stick to gauge whether the administration’s actions align with its newly published game plan.”

CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS: U.S. STRATEGY IN MIDDLE EAST

CFR: NATIONAL SECURITY DOCUMENT REVIEW

Trump’s National Security Strategy is Decidedly Non-Trumpian
By Kate Brennan, Defense One: “The Trump administration is preparing to roll out its new National Security Strategy, a document meant to guide its national security policies. Yet a Trump administration staffer who reviewed a draft of the document—and shared key excerpts with me—describes it as “divorced from the reality” of Trump’s presidency.”
The Trumping of Asia
By Kevin Rudd, The Strategist (ASPI): “You don’t have to be a Marxist to understand that economics has a profound and probably even decisive impact on politics, both national and international. And, indeed, the geopolitical and geoeconomic implications of U.S. President Donald Trump’s move are just beginning to be felt across the Pacific.”

The 2017 National Security Strategy: A Scorecard
By Peter Dombrowski & Simon Reich, The Conversation: “The new strategy was prepared under the leadership of the national security adviser, Lt. General H.R. McMaster. It has been much anticipated by Washington and U.S. allies as well as adversaries. After all, as experts have repeatedly pointed out, past national security strategies have often foreshadowed subsequent actions. “America watchers” abroad therefore are looking for signs of order in what has often been depicted as an inconsistent and incoherent U.S. foreign policy since President Trump’s election.”

Three Ways to Read Trump's National Security Strategy
By Eliot A. Cohen, The Atlantic: “One approach is to adopt the mind of a tracker examining the scat of a shaggy, shambling woodland beast. The spoor may be aesthetically unappealing, but it provides insight into the beast’s diet, possibly its direction of travel, maybe even its overall health. This metaphor suggests the experience and acuity needed by readers, because unfortunately, the gastric juices of the bureaucratic digestive system dissolve most nutritional content in the NSS.”

The National Security Strategy Papers Over a Crisis
By Thomas Wright, The Atlantic: “In off-the-record conversations with outsiders, the Trump administration’s senior national-security officials all stay in the mainstream of U.S. foreign policy. They recognize the threat from Russia, often with great passion. They reject the notion they are protectionist, instead championing bilateral deals as an alternative to mega trade pacts such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. They steadfastly back U.S. allies, especially those in nato. They even make favorable reference to the much-derided liberal international order.”

Cotton Overprescribes Military Force Over Balanced Foreign Policy
By Daniel DePetris, RealClearDefense: “If anyone happened to read last weekend’s Wall Street Journal feature story on Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), you could be forgiven for thinking that the 40-year-old junior senator from Arkansas is a foreign policy luminary.”

MEF: TRUMP DOCUMENT IMPROVEMENT ON PREDECESSORS

The National Security Strategy’s Implications for Seapower
By Bryan McGrath, War on the Rocks: “Seapower advocates have long made the case for freedom of the seas and the security and prosperity benefits that such freedom provides.”

The Identity Crisis of Trump’s National Security Policy
By John Dale Grover, RealClearDefense: “Trump attempts to both engage America’s rivals while tweeting things that antagonize them. Uncertainty can be a strategic tool to mask one’s intent, but finesse matters.”

Compete, Deter, and Win:
Making the National Defense Strategy Great Again?
By Ryan Leach, Modern War Institute: “Yet despite the clarity with which the NDS describes the operational environment and the rise of “revisionist powers,” the strategy it outlines attempts to maintain the established order and balance of power, whatever the cost.”

The Glaring Flaws in the New Defense Strategy
By Harlan Ullman, Observer: “Last week, retired Marine General now Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis released an 11-page summary of the nation's latest national defense strategy. The strategy reflected the secretary's philosophy and his experience as a brilliant practitioner of military art and a serious student of war in all its forms whose knowledge exceeds that of many scholars. The document is an extension of the last administration's “four plus one” strategy.”

Trump’s NDS Has the Pentagon Popping Champagne
By Andrew Bacevich, The American Conservative: “Implicit in the document is this proposition: more spending will make the armed forces of the United States “stronger” and the United States “safer.””

WHAT'S A FILIBUSTER

12/12/2017

SENATORS PREPARE TO SLEEP ON U.S. SENATE FLOOR
Exceptions To The Rule: The Politics Of Filibuster Limitations In The U.S. Senate
by Hoover Institution via R Street Institute
Hoover Institution hosts an event with author Molly E. Reynolds on her latest book, Exceptions to the Rule: The Politics of Filibuster Limitations in the US Senate.

MILTON FRIEDMAN: THE FRAGILITY OF FREEDOM

12/9/2017

HOOVER

Watch Milton Friedman discuss subsidies to foreign producers from their governments
Mark J. Perry | AEIdeas

Who Leads The West: Trump Or Merkel?
by Russell A. Berman via Defining Ideas (Hoover Institution)
The constitutional cultures of America and Germany differ markedly—one prizes individual liberty while the other emphasizes the rational state.

HOW IS THE MIDDLE CLASS DOING? HOOVER INSTITUTION METRICS OF ECONOMIC MEASUREMENTS, THE ANALYSIS

12/7/2017

The Numbers Game: How Is The Middle Class Doing?
by Russell Roberts via PolicyEd.org
Is it true that the wages for those in the middle class have been stagnant since the 1970s? Watch the 1st video in the new animated series The Numbers Game, in which Hoover Research Fellow Russ Roberts discusses the challenges of accurately measuring and understanding the economy and economic policy.

WHY U.S. ENERGY ROARS & TRANSPORTATION WHIMPERS

12/5/2017

E21

THE STATE OF FISCAL POLICY, WHAT THE ANGLO-SPHERE TEACHES & HOW TO REFORM SOCIAL SECURITY DISABILITY

12/4/2017

The Anglosphere can teach us a lot about fiscal reform
Alex Brill and Sean Speer | Real Clear Policy
Congress is deeply entrenched in an effort to reform the federal tax code. Central to this effort is a desire to lower the US corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 20 percent — a level on par with the rest of the developed world. Policymakers are keenly aware of the competitive advantages this change could bring based on similar rate changes across Europe and around the globe. But the lesson of corporate tax reform that the US has learned from its peers may be an exception rather than the rule.

Where have all the deficit hawks gone?
Desmond Lachman | The Hill

The Social Security disability program needs structural reform
Tejesh Pradhan and James C. Capretta | AEI

THE FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE REVOLUTION
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THE COMING STORM
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A CRITIQUE OF THE NEW RIGHT
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RUSSELL KIRK'S TRAGIC SENSE OF LIFE
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AMERICA'S ATOMIC HABITS
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DARK FORCES 21st CENTURY
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THE MANY OF DEATHS OF LIBERALISM
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AN ECONOMIC AGENDA FOR THE NEXT PRESIDENT

AMERICA'S COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE

IRREGULAR ORDER I; BREAKING THE DEEP STATE
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IRREGULAR ORDER II
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REBUILDING AMERICAN CAPITALISM
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THE ARISTOCRACY IN DEMOCRACY
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DESTRUCTIVE DE-COUPLING FROM CHINA
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HOW US RETURNS MANUFACTURING: GOLDMAN
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Peter Berkowitz: America A Commercial Republic

HOW TO FIX BROKEN CITIES
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HENRY OLSON: POLITICAL DEMOGRAPHY

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