| GCAPTIAN A WEEK AT THE PENTAGON, CHAOS HOPE |
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Make the Pentagon’s China Report Really Matter by Chris Estep
The China military power report has grown into a cornerstone of defense analysis. But does it still meet the moment?
US defense procurement is expensive, increasingly concentrated, and resistant to change.
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Creative Destruction Is Alive and Well—Except Where It Matters Most
John G. Ferrari | AEI Foreign and Defense Policy Working Paper Series
Distributed Maritime Ops: Is the US Navy Ready for China?
www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/distributed-maritime-ops-is-the-us-navy-ready-for-china/ Distributed Maritime Ops seeks to increase the resilience of US forces against Chinese A2/AD threats by complicating enemy targeting and leveraging technological advantages, but success is still contingent on the robustness of US logistics and industrial support. Trump’s Strategic Choice: Prioritization or Retrenchment
The decision to prioritize China or retreat to the Americas is the central tension for Trump's foreign policy team.
Trump’s defense secretary should focus on internal Pentagon challenges to meet external threats
In this op-ed, John Ferrari says the incoming secretary of defense needs to fix three things in the Pentagon: acquisition, resources, and recruiting.
Political leaders need to stop standing in the way of defense innovation
“Standing in the way [of innovation] are three roadblocks, none of which are technological, and all of which the next President and Congress should consider challenging,” writes John Ferrari of AEI.
3 steps towards fixing the acquisition insanity at the Pentagon
In this op-ed, John Ferrari of AEI argues the Pentagon needs to stop creating and rearranging offices for procurement and lays out what they should do instead.
We are living through a shift in the balance of power between states and the private sector, writes Ulrike Franke, with vast implications for modern conflict.
The Dwindling Strategic Flame: Reviving Creative Defense Planning
By Phillip Dolitsky, Military Strategy Magazine: “Strategy and defense planning belong to the realm of the unknown. There is nothing as certain as the uncertainty of the future and yet all polities depend on their safety and survival by striving to meet the challenge of uncertainty.” The U.S. Military Is Quietly Reinventing Itself on the Great Lakes By Jerry Hendrix, National Review: “As some of the world’s largest inland seas, the lakes provide the United States with an opportunity similar to that found at Area 51.”
Russia’s Post-War Military Recruiting Strategy Emerges by Dara Massicot
How will Russia recruit the next generation of professional enlisted soldiers and officers, having sustained an estimated 350,000 casualties in Ukraine since 2022?
History and Perspective in Statecraft with Susan Colbourn and Simon Miles
Susan and Simon discussed how different concepts of history have shaped the war in Ukraine and how students of international affairs should challenge their assumptions and embrace uncertainty. The Army Wants You to Write. Three Soldiers Explain Why with Zachary Griffiths, Emily Lopez, Leyton Summerlin, and Ryan Evans Three soldiers — one non-commissioned officer and two officers — join Ryan to discuss why professional writing is crucial in the U.S. Army.
Beyond Fusion: Preparing for Systems Rivalry
by Liza Tobin, Addis Goldman, and Katherine Kurata China’s military-civil fusion strategy effectively blends private sector innovation with centralized oversight, blurring the lines between top-down direction and bottom-up initiative.
The Dwindling Strategic Flame: Reviving Creative Defense Planning
Phillip Dolitsky In this essay, I argue that there has been a decline of late to "think about the unthinkable" when it comes to matters of military strategy. One sees this, for instance, in the Israeli failure to ever consider retaking the Gaza Strip and ousting Hamas from power following the disengagement in 2005, and with the current type of discourse surrounding a looming conflict with China. Drawing on my love and study of chess, I argue that what's needed is a renaissance of the type of thinking that characterized much of Cold War strategic thinking, where strategists considered the unthinkable. Read Now 3 Steps Towards Fixing the Acquisition Insanity at the Pentagon By John Ferrari, Breaking Defense: “It’s often said that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again but expecting a different result.”
How Washington Can Save its Semiconductor Controls on China by Ben Noon Americans are largely still allowed to sell technology, capital, and know-how to China’s growing machine tool companies. Washington should restrict these commercial partnerships to ensure its export controls survive. Leadership Lessons From Our Top Presidents
with Talmage Boston The Clements Center for National Security, the LBJ Presidential Library and the UT-Austin History Department hosted Talmage for a book talk on How the Best Did It: Leadership Lessons From Our Top Presidents.
Three Surprises in the US Military’s Wish Lists
Elaine McCusker and John G. Ferrari | Defense News As there are two major wars ongoing, several shadow wars, and the potential for a major conflict with China, we can expect the Pentagon may also have a fiscal year 2025 emergency supplemental in the works. Even with this context, the unfunded priorities lists contained several interesting surprises. Full Story
U.S. Defense Industrial Base Still Facing Headwinds
By Jennifer Stewart, National Defense Magazine: “During the last 35 years, six U.S. administrations have worked tirelessly to deter peer conflict. But in many ways, the nation both forgot enduring truths regarding what national deterrence against peer competition requires and failed to successfully address the changing social, demographic and financial trends impacting the defense industrial base.”
Dan Grazier writes: If the Pentagon wants the American people to believe they have gotten their money’s worth, it should immediately declassify the latest testing report and release it publicly. After years of lofty promises about how the F-35 program would revolutionize warfare forever, it has barely limped across the full-rate production finish line. – The Hill
Understanding the Defense Department’s Industrial Base Problems with Jeff Decker, Marshall Kosloff, and Noah Sheinbaum
Marshall moderated a discussion with Jeff and Noah about their recent article, “Shining a Light on the Defense Department’s Industrial Base Problems.”
Five Highlights of Biden’s Most Recent Military Budget
Mackenzie Eaglen | AEIdeas The White House’s military budget that it recently sent to Congress does not have enough funds to cover inflation. Mackenzie Eaglen explains how the president’s budget will cause America’s armed forces to fall further behind those of China and other adversaries. First, the costs of delayed and anemic military modernization will continue to compound and grow. Next, the Army is facing steep reductions, and the Navy plans on buying only six battle-force ships. Finally, the retirements and equipment quantities in the request will result in a less capable Air Force. If Congress does not want the military to fall further behind adversaries, it needs to revise the budget caps and provide the armed forces with real growth. Learn more here. >>
The State of the Defense Acquisition System, 2024
William C. Greenwalt | Senate Committee on Armed Services The defense acquisition system works as well as can be expected given the many, and oftentimes conflicting, mandates it must meet in law, executive orders, regulation, and policy. William C. Greenwalt notes the Defense Department’s legacy acquisition system is still too slow to be competitive and is only incrementally innovative. As America’s threat environment changes, its acquisition system must be flexible enough to adapt to disruptive new technology trends in real time. Despite reforms designed to elevate speed and the importance of time in acquisition, progress has been marginal at best. Without embracing the changes necessary to speed acquisition time, the Pentagon will not be capable of meeting the threats of the future. Read the full testimony here. >>
In Fiscal Year 2025, Bet on Congress or Begin to Pivot
John G. Ferrari and Charles Rahr | Breaking Defense The Pentagon seems to be the one institution in America that believes Congress will bail it out. John G. Ferrari and Charles Rahr explain that rather than relying on the Hill to save them, Defense Department leaders should consider alternative ways to meet current needs under budget constraints and a hard pivot away from expensive manned systems in favor of cheaper unmanned ones that can provide mass and capability for near-term conflicts. In failing to submit a budget that meets its strategy, the Pentagon is betting on Congress to come to its rescue. If that rescue mission does not pan out, then the Defense Department may have to pivot from large, expensive platforms to unmanned, attritable platforms bought at scale. Continue here. >>
After Putin
The Isis attack on Moscow has its origins in the Russian president’s earliest days in power—and points up the stakes for what follows when he is gone. / Read here
The 2024 National Defense Authorization Act—Bipartisan Hope amid Partisan Chaos
Elaine McCusker | National Interest Enacting the National Defense Authorization Act at a time when the current Congress can’t seem to agree on much of anything, much less by wide bipartisan margins, is a substantial achievement. Full Story
Five Notable Items for Asia Watchers in the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act
Zack Cooper and Connor Fiddler | AEIdeas  Defense Appropriations Highlights and Conference Issues Defense Authorization Highlights and Conference Issues And You Are? How to Recognize and Remedy Unrecognized Frictions by Patrick Hinton Internal organizational friction reduces operational effectiveness and is often invisible in measures of force readiness. Defense Budgeting: Grappling With New Threats by Nadia Schadlow via Defining IdeasThe “peace dividend” days are over. Here’s where the money needs to go. Some Really New Thinking About How We Control Nuclear Weapons
mentioning Rose Gottemoeller via Commonwealth ClubFor 60 years following the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, the United States and the USSR, later Russia, did their utmost to move forward to control nuclear weapons. Even in the darkest days of the Cold War, the two countries sat together at the negotiating table to produce the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the first Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty, SALT I.
The Sinking Submarine Industrial Base by Emma Salisbury
The end of the Cold War gave rise to a balancing act within the world of U.S. naval acquisitions — how to make cuts under falling defense budgets while retaining a sufficient industrial base for the future.
The "Arsenal of Democracy" Does Not Sustain Itself
Mackenzie Eaglen | AEIdeas If America is serious about remaining the arsenal of democracy, Washington cannot afford to take its foot off the pedal to increase surge production across the industrial base for munitions, ships, aircraft, and ground vehicles. Full Story
Chaos in Congress Must not Damage America’s Military
Mackenzie Eaglen | 19fortyfive.com With the outlook for defense policy and spending bills opaque for the foreseeable future given the chaos in Congress, Mackenzie Eaglen explains that policymakers must prioritize steps to mitigate uncertainty as much as possible. The Department of Defense must remind everyone that it has never operated under a full-year continuing resolution. Executive branch officials should educate members of Congress on how the absence of enacted policy and spending bills harms troops. Moreover, the National Defense Authorization Act has passed Congress for 62 consecutive years for good reason. With so many other headwinds, it is in the best interest of those in uniform not to break this streak. Learn more here. >>
Continuing to Lose: The Perils of Continuing Resolutions
Elaine McCusker | AEIdeas Another October, another continuing resolution (CR), which is Congress’s temporary legislative solution to extend last year’s funding and priorities into the new fiscal year. Elaine McCusker shows that perpetually using CRs wastes time and money while damaging national security. Under the current CR, the Defense Department is already losing about $70 million per day in buying power that will not come back. At fiscal year 2023 annualized levels, the defense budget under the CR is not only well below what is required but also in the wrong accounts. The nation needs its elected representatives to do their job and pass a defense budget before the current CR expires on November 17. Read more here. >> Learn about the Defense Fiscal Year Countdown here. >>
China’s Real Military Budget Is Far Bigger Than It Looks
Mackenzie Eaglen | 19fortyfive.com While Congress considers legislation to better approximate China’s military spending, the trend is clearly nothing but upward while America’s defense budget declines.
Counterterrorism Partnerships Sharpen America’s Competitive Edge
Katherine Zimmerman | Liberal Patriot  New MEQ Features Gaza Strategy Proposal News from the Middle East Forum https://www.meforum.org/64493/new-meq-features-gaza Given the grave rhetoric, reports of possible 10% to 20% cuts to Army special operations forces — a prime force for competing in the “gray zone” to achieve U.S. aims short of armed conflict — seem misaligned with U.S. goals. While it is important to weigh the potential strategic ramifications of these reductions, it is as critical to recognize that they are just the latest manifestation of a misalignment between U.S. defense strategy and resources. – Defense News In the twentieth century, various intellectual factions struggled to define how conservatism should respond to a transformed constitutional order. READ MORE › The Debt Ceiling’s Geopolitical StakesAs the U.S. scrambles to shore up its position in the Indo-Pacific, unsound finances at home threaten its military readiness. / Read here Why the Budget Deal Is Good News for Defense—with One Key Exception Elaine McCusker | Breaking Defense Defense Budget: The Storied Unfunded Priorities Lists Elaine McCusker and John G. Ferrari | April 2023 Congress requires select uniformed and civilian leaders in the Pentagon to submit unfunded priority lists (UPLs) each year shortly after the president’s budget is released. In performing its constitutional responsibilities, Congress uses the UPLs, as the best judgment and advice of senior leaders, to understand risk inherent in the defense budget. This year’s UPLs total $16.9 billion and are notable in part for what they do not include: requests for assistance in addressing inflation that was not part of the budget request. As in previous years, investment accounts continue to dominate the UPLs, providing continuing evidence that defense needs both capacity and capability to perform its missions. READ MORE Time Is Money: The Importance of On-Time Annual Appropriations Elaine McCusker | AEIdeas Defense Fiscal Year Countdown American Enterprise Institute
DEFEATING RUSSIA & CHINA Read Full Monograph Reforming Defense Budgeting Elaine McCusker | AEI Foreign and Defense Policy Working Paper Series The defense budget funds has an increasing number of programs that do not produce military capability. Elaine McCusker explains that absent intervention, this trend will likely continue. As the US rethinks defense budgeting, it is useful to examine three key challenges. First, the Defense Department budget contains nearly $109 billion in spending that does not directly produce military capability. Second, as the definition of national security continues to expand, the number of noncore missions, programs, and activities funded by the defense budget will likely grow. Third, key characteristics of the defense budget need improvement. The budget should be transparent, responsive, and flexible in quickly taking advantage of technological advances. Currently, the defense budget struggles to be any of these things. Read the working paper here. >> Congress: Find the Savings and Hold the Defense-Budget Cuts Mackenzie Eaglen and Thomas Spoehr | 19fortyfive.com Congress finds itself torn between the twin imperatives to supply defense programs and reduce annual deficits to put the economy on a sound path. Mackenzie Eaglen and Thomas Spoehr identify ways the Pentagon can save and reinvest money to confront China. First, serious defense reform is the patient work of many years and requires allowing reformers to carefully cut and trim where necessary. Next, broad coalitions must advocate needed updates to the defense bureaucracy. Third, change requires up-front costs before the US can reap meaningful savings. Finally, continuing to avoid reform is unhelpful to those in uniform, since reform will free up funds for reinvestment in the things the military needs. Read more here. >> Bad Idea: Looking for Easy Solutions for PPBE Reform The means by which the Department of Defense decides how to spend its budget has long been criticized as needlessly complex and incapable of helping policymakers choose among investments to meet strategic goals. Seeking solutions, Congress created the Commission on PPBE Reform in the 2022 defense policy bill. But the reforms the system needs may not be as obvious as they seem. Read more » Turkey's More Independent Foreign Policy, with Christopher Preble, Melanie Marlowe, and Aaron Stein Fixing America’s Defense Budget By Elaine McCusker, RealClearDefense: “As Congress prepares to review the fiscal year 2024 federal budget request, new opportunities are emerging that can provide for America’s defense while still prioritizing cost saving and fiscal responsibility." Joe Biden’s Aspirational Defense Budget The Pentagon’s Fiscal Year 2024 Defense Budget Falls $40 Billion Short The Great Illusion of 2023 By Francis P. Sempa, The American Spectator: "Economic interdependence and globalization does not lessen the likelihood of war or the need to prepare for it." The Battle for Eurasia’s Borderlands
By Antonia Colibasanu, Geopolitical Futures: "Borderlands have long been an object of scrutiny in the realm of geopolitics, as they represent a point of convergence, interaction and oftentimes conflict between nations and political systems." |
X MACKENZIE EAGLEN
MACKENZIE EAGLEN, 19FORTYFIVE.COM
JAMES HOLMES 'REPLICATOR' 19FORTYFIVE.COM
ELAINE McCUSKER AEI/DoD
DOD ACQUISITION REFORM
Dr. Kathleen Hicks
THUCYDIDES & THE LONG WAR PROBLEM
FORCE PLANNING IN AGE OF GREAT POWER COMPETITION
AGAINST ALL ODDS: CHANGING ACQUISITION CULTURE
THE CRISIS OF AMERICAN MILITARY PRIMACY
NATIONAL MILITARY STRATEGY: REVOLUTIONARY APPROACH
UNDERSTANDING MILITARY MODERNIZATION
5 STRATEGIES FOR SEC. OF DEFENSE
WHY THE 3RD OFFSET FAILS
INADEQUATE DOCTRINES FOR IRREGULAR WAR
ALTERNATIVE WAR STRATEGIES & FORCE POSTURE
REVERSING DECLINE: ELIZABETHIAN ENGLAND
U.S. GRAND STRATEGY FOR WINNING WORLD WAR IV
MULTI-DOMAIN BATTLE REPLACES R.M.A.
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