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NORTH AMERICA 

BAGHDADI GONE BUT ISLAMIC STATE HOLDS CONTINENTAL AFRICA, BERUIT & BAGHDAD ERUPT:  WHAT WILL IRAN DO

10/27/2019

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 http://jcpa.org/iraqis-take-to-the-streets-to-oppose-irans-involvement-in-their-country/
●        https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/iraq-violence-shows-folly-of-placing-hope-in-iran-reform
●        https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/iraqi-protests-bring-baghdad-to-the-tipping-point
●        https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-dead-his-legacy-lives-91536
●        https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-24/as-turkey-and-russia-deal-iran-is-odd-man-out
With or without Baghdadi, Salafi-jihadis are winning the governance game
Emily Estelle | AEIdeas
Eliminating key leaders such as Baghdadi is important, but a predominantly military approach will continue to fail without improving the circumstances of the communities on which Salafi-jihadi groups prey.
Iran's Model: Smash the Protests in Lebanon and Iraq by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
October 29, 2019

https://www.meforum.org/59707/iran-model-smash-the-protests-in-lebanon-and-iraq
Revolt against Iran's 'System' in Iraq and Lebanon by Jonathan Spyer
The Jerusalem Post
October 31, 2019

https://www.meforum.org/59724/revolt-against-irans-system-in-iraq-and-lebanon
Lebanon is a basket case run by a terror group: don’t fund it
Tony Badran -- Al Arabiya
After two weeks of popular protests in Lebanon against the country’s corrupt political class, Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri has handed his resignation. While some see this development as a victory for the protesters, such assessments miss the mark. The same political barons will now consult to form a new government, a process in which Iran’s arm in Lebanon, Hezbollah, has final say. Far from signaling a change in the system, the episode will have marked its regeneration. Read More
Iraqi Protesters Vent Anger at Iran-Backed Militias
David Adesnik and Nicholas Wernert — FDD Policy Brief
Iraqi protesters are lashing out at the Iran-backed militias who sought to crush the anti-government uprisings that have roiled Iraq since early October. The protesters’ slogans and choice of targets linked to the militias demonstrate the extent to which anti-Iran sentiment now animates the protest movement. Iraqis have taken to the streets to protest corruption, unemployment, and a lack of public services. Read more

After Baghdadi, Iran Should Be Trump's Next Priority  by Con Coughlin
Dead Caliph, Eternal Jihad by Raymond Ibrahim
FrontPage Magazine
October 29, 2019

https://www.meforum.org/59715/dead-caliph-eternal-jihad

​ Africa File
  • East Africa
  • North Africa
  • West Africa
The current US approach to terror is a recipe for forever war
Katherine Zimmerman | Defense One
Lebanese prime minister resigns amid mass protests 
Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned on Tuesday after almost two weeks of unprecedented nationwide anti-government protests. “We have reached a deadlock and we need a shock in order to brave through the crisis,” Hariri said in a televised speech. Hundreds of thousands of people have been protesting across the country since Oct. 17 against corruption and the economic crisis.
Hariri’s resignation came hours after men armed with pipes and sticks attacked peaceful demonstrators in Beirut. Supporters of the country’s main Shiite groups, Amal and Hezbollah, beat protesters and burned down their tents.

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aljazeera.com
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi killed himself during raid, U.S. says

Overnight Attack that Killed Al-Baghdadi Raises Many Questions by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
October 27, 2019

https://www.meforum.org/59692/attack-that-killed-baghdadi-raises-questions
Turkey and China Tie Themselves in Knots Over Syria and Xinjiang
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-22/how-lebanon-s-protests-are-connected-to-public-debt
●        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-19/how-lebanon-s-unrest-is-both-new-and-more-of-the-same-quicktake
●        https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/22/iran-losing-middle-east-iraq-lebanon-protests-bad-governance/
●        https://www.mei.edu/blog/hezbollahs-counterrevolution
●      https://news.yahoo.com/lebanons-hezbollah-under-rare-street-pressure-114903448.html

Analysis
The US has a partner in eastern Syria — provided it has the will
The Trump administration inherited a number of complex problems in the Syrian file from its predecessors in the White House. In dealing with the Syrian crisis, the Obama administration had three main priorities: not disturbing Iran in Syria during the process of nuclear negotiations, working with Russia toward a ceasefire in various parts of Syria (without trusting that Russia could deliver or should have the upper hand), and, most importantly, carrying out a limited military intervention in the northeast to defeat ISIS — an issue it considered separately from the Syrian crisis.
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Islamic State confirms Baghdadi’s death, names new ‘Emir of the Faithful’
The Islamic State’s latest spokesman, a jihadist known as Abu Hamza al-Qurayshi, released a statement yesterday confirming Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s death in an American raid and naming a new emir for the group. Baghdadi’s successor is a figure known as Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi.
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THE KURDISH INITIATIVE INVITES ASSAD & RUSSIA INTO THE BLOOD SANDS

10/27/2019

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Turkey Orders Qatar to 'Weed Out' Journalists Critical of Syria Invasion by Sam Westrop
The Jerusalem Post
November 4, 2019

https://www.meforum.org/59841/turkey-orders-qatar-to-weed-out-journalist
How Putin Outfoxed Trump, Pence and Erdogan  by Malcolm Lowe
Amb. W. Robert Pearson: Sooner or Later, Putin Will Force Turkey out of Syria
Middle East Forum Radio
October 29, 2019

https://www.meforum.org/59702/amb-w-robert-pearson-on-turkey
A Strategic View of the Turkish Campaign Against the Kurds
By Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, October 31, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: In light of recent regional events in general and the Turkish invasion of Syria in particular, Israel needs to reconsider the underlying strategic rationale not only of its covert activities in neighboring countries but also its more overt conduct. Otherwise it could find itself, in case of war with the northern axis (Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria), winning battles but having trouble ending the campaign with a strategic achievement.

Continue to full article ->
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THE IDF REVEALS ITS 5 YEAR PLAN

10/27/2019

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The IDF released its new five-year plan of operations on Thursday, with its chief of staff warning, “The situation is fragile in the north and south — and may deteriorate into a confrontation.” – Algemeiner
Israel’s northern border – in particular Iranian-led activity – is the main security challenge the country faces, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi said Thursday. – Ynet
A privately owned, unidentified Challenger 604 jet departed from Ben-Gurion International Airport, landing first in the Jordanian capital of Amman and then in the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh on Tuesday evening, causing many to question which Israeli decided to pay the Saudis a visit. […]Maariv reporter Yossi Melman posited in a tweet that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or Mossad chief Yossi Cohen may have been on the flight. – Jerusalem Post
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MEXICO:  THE FAILED STATE

10/27/2019

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ASIA TIMES
Latin America Emerges as a Russian Theater of Operations
By Stephen Blank, Eurasia Daily Monitor: "It has only recently become clear to analysts in the United States that Russia is playing a big role in Latin America to destabilize Washington’s alliance system and threaten U.S. interests"

How the Sinaloa Cartel Clobbered Mexico's Army
By Ted Galen Carpenter, The American Conservative: "While American media outlets have been trashing the Trump administration over its abandonment of America's “noble Kurdish allies” in Syria, they have paid little attention to an extraordinary and alarming development in Mexico. This week, criminals actually declared open season on the Mexican government—and won."
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THE NEXT AGENT ORANGE:  THE BURN-PITS OF AFGHANISTAN

10/24/2019

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The Military's Next Agent Orange
By Kelly Kennedy, The War Horse: "... Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of service members back from Iraq and Afghanistan are developing lung diseases and ailments that all link back to the same environmental hazard that soldiers came forward about 11 years ago: burn pits." ​
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U.S. TROOPS CAN'T GO TO IRAQI KURDISTAN, NETANYAHU FAILS & LEBANON BURNS

10/22/2019

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Turkey-Backed Jihadists in Syria Kidnap, Murder, and Desecrate by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
October 24, 2019

https://www.meforum.org/59660/turkey-backed-jihadists-in-syria
The U.S. Is Losing the War Against Tyranny
By Michael Ledeen & David Wurmser, Washington Examiner: "We are at war, under siege from a global alliance that runs from Pyongyang to Havana and Caracas. At the moment we are losing, having failed to bring down the leaders of our main adversaries: Kim Jong Un in North Korea, Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, and Ali Khamenei in Tehran, despite monster demonstrations in the latter two countries.
How to protect America after the Syria withdrawal
(The Atlantic ) We warned two weeks ago about the danger of abandoning America’s Kurdish-led partner force in Syria, even as thousands of suspected ISIS fighters remain in detention and ISIS attacks steadily increase.
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Turkey’s Syria policy could lead to its own destruction
Michael Rubin | The National Interest
 Iraqi military says US troops leaving Syria can't stay in Iraq 
The Iraqi military said in a statement today that the nearly 1,000 US troops that have withdrawn from northeast Syria do not have permission to stay in the country and can only use Iraqi territory for transit. “All US forces that withdrew from Syria received approval to enter the Kurdistan Region so that they may be transported outside Iraq,” the statement said. “There is no permission granted for these forces to stay inside Iraq.” The statement flatly contradicts the Pentagon, which previously said it would keep some of the troops in western Iraq to support the campaign against the Islamic State and “help defend Iraq.”
Meanwhile President Donald Trump said Monday that he was leaving behind a "small number of troops" at the Syrian border with Jordan to help "secure the oil" in other parts of the country. The decision was made at the request of Jordan and Israel, Trump said. This follows withering bipartisan criticism that the abrupt US withdrawal from northeast Syria is a boon for the Islamic State and other US foes including Iran and Russia.

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reuters.com
 
Turkish truce ends in Syria 
Turkey is closely monitoring Kurdish militants' withdrawal from the border in northeast Syria as the US-brokered 120-hour pause in the Turkish offensive ends at 10 p.m. local time today. The People's Protection Units (YPG) have reportedly abandoned the city centers of Ras al-Ain and Tell Abyad. About 125 trucks carrying YPG militants have already left the area, sources from Turkey's Defense Ministry told the Daily Sabah on Monday, although some militants have reportedly donned civilian clothing and stayed behind in rural areas in the 75 miles between the two cities.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to discuss the truce with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi later today as Russia hosts the leaders of Turkey and Iran for trilateral talks on the future of Syria. “In this trip, Mr. Putin and I will tackle the period and will hopefully take the necessary steps,” Erdogan said at a forum in Istanbul on Monday. Putin and Erdogan's talks will focus on "normalizing the situation" in northeast Syria, according to the Kremlin.

Read More  
dailysabah.com
 
Netanyahu fails to create new government 
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Monday evening that he had failed to compose a governing coalition. Two days before Wednesday's deadline, he handed back his mandate to President Reuven Rivlin, who is now expected to give Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz 28 days to try to form a coalition that can win a Knesset majority. If Gantz fails, Rivlin could task the Knesset to propose its own majority-backed candidate. New elections — the third within the span of one year — are also an option.
Read More  
jpost.com
 
Lebanon adopts sweeping reforms amid protests 
Lebanon’s Cabinet on Monday approved sweeping economic reforms and passed a state budget for 2020 budget as hundreds of thousands of people continued to protest the economic crisis plaguing the country for a fifth day in a row. Prime Minister Saad Hariri proposed the plan, which calls for cutting the salaries of lawmakers and ministers in half but doesn't include any new taxes. Instead, Hariri announced that the flush banking sector would help reduce the country's soaring deficit while poor families would get millions in subsidies and housing loans. The Cabinet also voted to abolish several state institutions, including the Ministry of Information. But protests that broke out last week across the country amid growing anger over decades of corruption and the government’s mismanagement of the economic crisis are expected to continue today as people have lost trust in the government.
Read More  
dailystar.com.lb
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BEFORE SYRIA, US ABANDONED AFRICA TO THE WILES OF JIHADISM

10/20/2019

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Matthew Continetti writes: Not wanting to commit the resources necessary to build functioning states, we left Iraq, abandoned Libya, and turned a blind eye to Syria. Not willing to sacrifice Americans on additional fields of battle in the Long War against Islamic terrorism and the religious-political cultures that breed it, we withdrew that presence which guarantees the security of our partners. Pete Buttigieg is right to say that what is happening in Syria is a consequence of American withdrawal. But if what’s happening is a betrayal of American values, it’s one Americans voted for. – Washington Free Beacon
Katherine Zimmerman recommends that to end the “forever war,” the US must adopt a strategy that downgrades the counterterrorism fight and subjugates hard power to soft power.  
Read the full report here.
Africa File is a biweekly analysis and assessment of the Salafi-jihadi movement in Africa and related security and political dynamics. Each edition begins "At a Glance” followed by country-specific updates. 

​Read the latest Africa File here.
                   East Africa
  • North Africa
  • West Africa
Michael Makovsky writes: The White House must find new ways of salvaging four vital national interests at stake: preventing the resurgence of ISIS; checking Turkey in the region; rolling back Iran, which has notched another victory in this Syria fiasco; and bolstering close regional allies threatened by ­recent events. […]Wednesday’s 354-to-60 vote in the House of Representatives in ­favor of a resolution rebuking Trump’s abrupt Syrian withdrawal showed it can entail serious political costs. He can’t undo it, but he needs to mitigate the consequences and salvage what he can of US interests, as well as his own and America’s credibility. – New York Post
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BEIJING'S LEADERSHIP HAS LOST HONG KONG

10/15/2019

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ISLAM VS. CHRISTENDOM ALONG THE SOUTHERN RUSSIAN TIER, WHEN ARE EXIT STRATEGIES VIABLE & A LOOK AT MISSION COMMAND

10/11/2019

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Trump's Big Move On Turkey May Gain U.S. Goals
By CONRAD BLACK, Special to the Sun | October 18, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/trump-big-move-on-turkey-may-gain-us-goals/90872/
Russia-Saudi Rapprochement?
John Hardie | Research Manager
Our So-Called Foreign Policy: The Globalists’ Dangerous Tantrums over Syria and Ukraine  by Alan Tonelson
Kurdish, Syrian, And Turkish Ironies
By Victor Davis Hanson via National Review  
It is incumbent on the Trump administration in general and on Secretary Pompeo in particular to find ways to prevent mass Turkish attacks on the Kurds, while not inserting American ground troops into a cauldron of fire between Turks and Kurds.
How not to end endless wars
Clifford D. May — The Washington Times
Whatever might be said about Donald Trump, I always figured him for a savvy New Yorker who knew a good deal when he saw one. A prime example was in Syria where the commander in chief, despite understandable misgivings about foreign entanglements, had deployed a small contingent of highly skilled troops to accomplish a mission vital to America’s national security. In military jargon, President Trump was employing “economy of force.” In the context... Read More
Uri Heitner writes: The Kurdish people are a Middle Eastern minority that has endured centuries of persecution. Israel has long seen them as an ally and has provided arms and training to its military organizations. […]Israel must not militarily intervene in Syria. It is not a super power and it is not its job to police the Middle East. […]Israel should be raising the issue at the United Nations and at every other international institution – and move towards sanctions against Turkey. – Ynet
Leonid Bershidsky writes: The weak Western reaction won’t force Erdogan to retreat. But the possibility of an all-out war might thwart his plan to clear a 30-kilometer “safe zone” in Syria. He may need to make a deal with Putin and Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. This could involve allowing him to resettle in northern Syria some of the 3.7 million Syrian refugees Turkey has been sheltering and no longer wants, perhaps making Russia and the Assad regime responsible for holding back any anti-Turkish activity along the border. – Bloomber
​Erdoğan Invaded; What's Next in Syria?by Daniel Pipes
DanielPipes.org
October 15, 2019

http://www.danielpipes.org/19075/erdogan-invaded-what-next-in-syria
Anthony H. Cordesman writes: Put bluntly, the U.S. may now have to write off Syria and the Kurds. If it is to remain the major strategic power in the rest of the Middle East and revive NATO as an effective alliance, however, it cannot go on relying on sanctions, empty military threats, sudden force withdrawals, and bluster. It needs to show that it can still lead, do so consistently and effectively, and be trustworthy as a strategic partner. – Center for Strategic and International Studie
Trump’s Syria blunder could bring order to chaos
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
Trump’s failure, our failure
Danielle Pletka | AEIdeas
America's actions in Syria reflect a failure of leadership. We must persuade our leadership, our policymakers, and the public that it is always cheaper to try to solve problems overseas before they become wars, but we haven’t done so.
Bolton's Purge, Trump's Obama Moments  by Jiri Valenta and Leni Friedman Valenta  •
When Are Exit Strategies Viable? by David Kamp
http://mfa.gov.az/en/news/909/6384
U.S., MIDDLE EAST:
U.S. Announces Full Withdrawal From Northern Syria As Turkish Forces Advance

By Amberin Zaman & Jack Detsch, Al-Monitor: "A top U.S. official announced Sunday that the United States would be pulling out all of its forces from northeastern Syria, leaving its Syrian Kurdish allies exposed to Turkey’s ongoing military offensive as it entered its fifth day — a move that will likely go down as a further betrayal of the Kurdish people by the United States."
The Trump Doctrine: Principled Realism or Endemic Confusion?
By Daniel S. Morgan, The Hill: "American foreign policy is increasingly falling into disarray and incoherence."

​
Will New Doctrine Fix Mission Command?
By Doug Orsi & Bobby Mundell, War Room: "But is updating the doctrine sufficient to answer its critics? Persistent execution challenges may go beyond what any doctrine can address."
Alternative Futures:
An Assessment of the 2040 Security Environment Absent Great Power Competition

By Mike Sweeney, Divergent Options: "America is likely to be ill-prepared for the security threats circa 2040. The tasks the U.S. military may be asked to perform in the face of global political instability, mass migration, and environmental degradation are likely to be both unconventional and unwanted."

​
A Better Idea Can Win the Next Big War for the Ground Services
By Robert Scales, War on the Rocks: "Buried in the rush to embrace multi-domain operations is an all-but-forgotten future-gazing effort the Army began soon after Desert Storm."
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THE IRANIAN & TURKISH CON GAME CONTINUES

10/8/2019

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Ilan Berman writes: Erdogan’s current, ambitious foreign policy vision (which includes the purchase of advanced fighter jets from Russia and a massive, multi-billion dollar stabilization plan for northern Syria) carries a steep price tag – one that Ankara would be hard pressed to foot alone. Domestically, meanwhile, Erdogan appears to have reconciled himself to the idea of accepting stabilization funds from Beijing in order to stay in power, no matter the strings that might be attached.The result is a Turkish government that is drifting ever deeper into China’s orbit, and away from the West. – The Diplomat
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TRUMP'S SYRIAN HAND REVEALED:  ABANDON THE KURDS & DEFINING TRUE ISLAM

10/8/2019

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DEFENSE ONE:  FORMER CENTCOM COMMANDER ON US WITHDRAWAL FOR TURKEY
Will Todman writes: If the Trump administration allows a Turkish incursion into northeast Syria, a full U.S. withdrawal from Syria appears inevitable. Without a presence on the ground, the United States will have no ability to achieve its three articulated aims in Syria: an enduring defeat of the ISG, the removal of Iranian forces and its proxies from Syria, and an irreversible political transition. U.S. leverage in Syria would be essentially be reduced to economics—the ability to increase its sanctions and deny reconstruction funding. Russia and Iran will both benefit from the new status quo. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
Trump’s Troop Pullback in Syria Is Part of a Consistent Policy
By James Durso, RealClearDefense: "Turkey, Europe, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Russia, and the Kurds will have to sort as they fight, and the battlefield will be more than the usual chaos with several armies, Russian mercenaries, Iranian-sponsored militias, refugees, and displaced persons moving in every direction amid ruined infrastructure. All in all, it’s a scene Trump thinks the U.S. is wise to avoid."
Trump Is Seeking Broad Coalition in The Middle East
By CONRAD BLACK, Special to the Sun | October 9, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/trump-is-seeking-broad-coalition-of-mideast/90862/
​U.S. Pullout Is a Boon for Assad by Jonathan Spyer
Jonathanspyer.com
October 9, 2019

https://www.meforum.org/59543/trump-syria-decision-is-a-boon-for-assad
Syria could be Turkey’s Vietnam 
Michael Rubin | The National Interest 
Trump Syria withdrawal decision immoral and short-sighted
Bradley Bowman | CMPP Senior Director
Trump’s Syria decision is a victory for America’s enemies in the Middle East
David Adesnik | Director of Research
Angry At Trump’s Syria-Withdrawal? He Learned His Foreign Policy From Obama
Mark Dubowitz | Chief ExecutiveTzvi Kahn | Senior Iran Analyst
Defining 'True Islam'by Sam Westrop
American Spectator
October 8, 2019

https://www.meforum.org/islamist-watch/59532/defining-true-islam
​Can Israel Trust the U.S. after Syria Withdrawal? by Seth Frantzman
The Jerusalem Post
October 7, 2019

https://www.meforum.org/59533/can-israel-trust-the-us-after-syria-withdrawal
  • "Angry At Trump’s Syria-Withdrawal? He Learned His Foreign Policy From Obama," Mark Dubowitz and Tzvi Kahn, Forward
  • "Trump’s Capitulation to Erdogan Destroys U.S. Credibility," Eric S. Edelman and Aykan Erdemir, Foreign Policy
  • "Trump’s Syria decision is a victory for America’s enemies in the Middle East,"David Adesnik, Fox News
  • "Trump Syria withdrawal decision immoral and short-sighted," Bradley Bowman, Military Times
  • "Making sense of Iran’s nuclear moves,"Behnam Ben Taleblu, The Hill
  • "Turkey Sends Oil-Drilling Ship Into Cypriot Waters… Again," Andrew Gabel and Mikhael Smits, FDD Policy Brief
John Dunford and Brandon Wallace write: ISIS has mounted low-level efforts to replenish its ranks from members held in detention facilities and displacement camps across Syria and Iraq since late 2018. Some ISIS members have paid bribes to guards in order to buy their freedom. Others have rioted or mounted small-scale escapes attempts from at least four detention facilities in Syria and Iraq since September 2018. ISIS is likely preparing more coordinated and sophisticated operations to free its detained members in Iraq and Syria. The largest risk likely faces the network of makeshift and undermanned detention facilities spread across Northern Syria.  – Institute for the Study of War

John Dunford writes: Turkey is preparing to invade Northeastern Syria despite U.S. efforts to de-escalate tensions through a joint security mechanism along the border. […]The Turkish offensive will likely target the Arab-majority city of Tel Abyad in Northern Raqqa Province. It will create an opportunity for ISIS to achieve breakout success in eastern Syria while the U.S. partner force, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), fights Turkey along the border. Pro-Assad regime forces could also attempt to exploit the chaos to seize oil fields currently under SDF control. – Institute for the Study of War

O. Peri and Y. Yehoshua write: The efforts to normalize with the Syrian regime and the calls to reinstate it in the Arab League are to a large extent also the result of pressure from Russia, which argues that such a move will advance peace in the country.[13] On the other hand, the U.S. is working to stop rapprochement with Assad as long as he does not commit to a political process in his country. […]The surprising sight of the Arab League secretary-general greeting and embracing the Syrian officials sparked speculation in the Arab media about whether it heralded Syria’s reinstatement in the Arab League. – Middle East Media Research Institute
​

Michael Weiss writes: In other words ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (yes, he’s still alive) exploited the Kurdish Question before and will exploit again now that all-out war between Turkey and Syria’s Kurds is a foregone conclusion. And so long as the inevitable carnage stays in the neighborhood, we can be reasonably sure that Donald Trump won’t care or will treat this as just the latest manifestation of a regional pathology, and not an unforced error of lousy U.S. policy-planning. – The Daily Beast
Trump's Retreat In North Syria Will Beget More War 
By BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | October 10, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/foreign/trumps-retreat-in-north-syria-begets-more-war/90864/
A guiding line runs through the unpredictability and seeming chaos of President Trump's foreign policy, summed by his favorite hashtag: #EndEndlessWars. That's what pushed the president to announce, following a phone call with Turkey's Islamist strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the withdrawal from Northern Syria the few dozen American GIs who until now prevented Turkey's invasion of its neighbor.
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NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION IS WORKING:  THE DAWN OF A NEW NUCLEAR AGE; STRATEGY, DETERRENCE AND DANGER

10/4/2019

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https://www.amazon.com/Second-Nuclear-Age-Strategy-Politics/dp/1250037352/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=Second+Nuclear+Age+Bracken&qid=1569811265&s=books&sr=1-1
https://www.amazon.com/Korean-Military-Proliferation-Middle-Africa/dp/0813175887
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AEI'S ZIMMERMAN:  NORTH AFRICAN JIHADI'S MOVE ON LIBYA & NATURE OF SYRIAN CONFLICT IS CHANGING

10/4/2019

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Anthony H. Cordesman writes: This analysis does not attempt to simplify the range of factors involved or to find a single set of main causes of extremism, terrorism, and insurgency. It does not attempt to offer simply or optimistic answers to problems that need far more in-depth analysis, and where it may be impossible to find truly workable solutions until a given state is finally driven to the point where it is ready to help itself. In the real world, the only practical choice may be to contain the threats in a given country to its own territory – a form of strategic triage that must give priority to countries that are actually willing to address their civil challenges and have the unity to act. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Iran-Gulf Dynamics
  • Protests in Iraq
Beyond Counterterrorism, which offers a new strategy for countering the Salafi-jihadi movement. 

Counterterrorism has prevented another 9/11 attack on the US homeland, but it has not stopped al Qaeda and the Islamic State from growing much stronger than they were in 2001. The US has targeted al Qaeda’s and the Islamic State’s terrorist networks and US and partner military operations have denied them control over large territories and populations. Yet al Qaeda and the Islamic State, as part of the Salafi-jihadi movement, have more territory, more fighters, and more capabilities than ever before. 

Winning the forever war means adopting a strategy that will weaken the Salafi-jihadi movement and not just reduce the terrorism threat. Zimmerman argues the US must reframe its approach to counter the Salafi-jihadi movement. With partners, the US must seek to sever their ties with local communities by offering communities a viable alternative to the Salafi-jihadi movement, which will weaken and ultimately isolate movement. 

The report is Zimmerman’s latest on the Salafi-jihadi movement. Her related reports include Road to the Caliphate, Terrorism, Tactics, and Transformation, and America’s Real Enemy.
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The war in Syria is far from over, but its nature is changing
As ISIS’s territorial “state” was simultaneously rolled back and then defeated, an international consensus increasingly emerged that claimed Syria’s war was “winding down.” There is no doubt that the geographic scope and intensity of conflict is not what it was at the height of hostilities in 2014 and 2015, but it is certainly not finished either. 

Read article
Net Assessment: Syria: A Sad Tale by Tom Karako, Melanie Marlowe, Christopher Preble
Al Shabaab Weakened but Not Defeated in Somalia
In light of recent attacks on Western military bases in Somalia, it's worth revisiting a 2016 RAND report on al Shabaab. Our findings indicated that the United States did make some strides in weakening the group, but progress could slip without continued pressure and reform. The authors warned that the group could bounce back if U.S. and other Western governments did not address Somalia's political, economic, and governance challenges at the heart of the conflict. Read more »
 Africa File is a biweekly analysis and assessment of the Salafi-jihadi movement in Africa and related security and political dynamics. Each edition begins "At a Glance” followed by country-specific updates. Read this week’s edition here!
  • At a Glance: Global counterterrorism efforts have passed their high-water mark and are receding. US Africa Command is shifting its prioritization from the counterterrorism mission to great power competition, a move also intended to reduce risk after a 2017 attack killed four servicemen in Niger. However, the Salafi-jihadi movement continues to make gains in Africa, including in areas in which previous counterterrorism efforts had significantly reduced Salafi-jihadi groups’ capabilities. 
  • October 1 Briefing: A cluster of US airstrikes in southern Libya indicate that the Islamic State has increased its recruitment in conditions of growing conflict and grievance caused by the Libyan civil war. In Somalia, the al Qaeda affiliate al Shabaab attempted to breach a joint US-Somali base for the first time as part of its broader effort to repel foreign forces and collapse the Somali government.
  • Check out detailed analysis on:
    • East Africa
    • North Africa
    • West Africa
Hifter's forces destroy Turkish drones stored in Libyan airports 
Forces loyal to Libyan strongman Khalifa Hifter say they destroyed Turkish drones stored at the Mitiga and Misrata airports, Hifter's self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) said early today. Hifter’s forces vowed in July to attack Turkish interests in Libyaafter Ankara was seen as helping the UN-backed government resist the LNA's monthslong attack on the capital. Meanwhile, the Government of National Accord in Tripoli said it suspected Hifter ally the United Arab Emirates of carrying out the airstrikes on Tuesday against Mitiga, Tripoli’s only functioning airport.
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english.alarabiya.net
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IRAN'S LAND BRIDGE TO ISRAEL NEARLY COMPLETE

10/4/2019

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Key Border Crossing Opens along Route of Iran’s Land Bridge to the Mediterranean
David Adesnik | Director of Research Andrew Gabel | Research Analyst
Russian-Chinese Cooperation Is Not As Temporary As You Think
By Emil Avdaliani, October 8, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Many believe the Russian-Chinese partnership, which functions across a variety of economic and political spheres, is only temporary. But Moscow’s disenchantment with the West, and the redirection of its foreign policy toward Beijing and beyond, is rooted in Russian historical thinking. The disagreement between Russia and the West is a full-scale geopolitical separation.
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CHINA AT 70

10/1/2019

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Who got China right? 
Paul Wolfowitz | AEIdeas
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How China 'Woke' America
by Victor Davis Hanson via National Review
But did she wake up just in time or too late?
China: 70 years of the People's Republic
Dan Blumenthal | AEI video 
On October 1, 1949, Mao Zedong proclaimed that China had defeated the imperialists and that the Chinese people have stood up to become a “peace-“ and “freedom-loving” nation. Seventy years later, has his proclamation come true? 
The Tragedy of Communist China
Editorial of The New York Sun | October 1, 2019
https://www.nysun.com/editorials/the-tragedy-of-communist-china/90852/
Communist China's 70th anniversary, with its spectacle of violence against demonstrators for democracy in Hong Kong, is a moment to mark a profound truth: There is no difference between political liberty and economic liberty. They cannot be separated, nor can one be put before the other. It turns out that economic liberty and political liberty are the same thing -- warp and woof of the fabric of freedom.
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Xi's Historic Power Grab Has Cost China A Great Deal Of Stability
quoting Elizabeth Economy via CNBC
This isn’t the outcome President Trump anticipated, now 15 months into his trade war with China. Chinese President Xi Jinping this Tuesday will stage the mother of all military parades through central Beijing, celebrating not only the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic — but also underscoring his quest for “national rejuvenation” and global leadership.
The China Mission
By John Q. Bolton, Strategy Bridge: "In August 1945, the United States was at the pinnacle of world power, globally supreme both economically and militarily. Though the Allies and Soviets had split Europe, the hardening of Cold War lines remained in the future. The immediate foreign policy challenge facing the Truman Administration was how to resolve the China Problem."

What Xi Jinping Hasn't Learned From China's Emperors
By James A. Millward, The New York Times: "On the occasion of the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China (P.R.C.) on Oct. 1, the party-state has much to celebrate: an unprecedented record of economic development, world-class education and technological innovation, an increasingly prominent position on the world stage. But even as the authorities go to extreme lengths to assure a triumphant birthday parade, the Chinese Communist Party (C.C.P.) faces its most intense international criticism since 1989 ..."
Xi Jinping Will Usher In a Dark Age for China
By Bradley Thayer & Lianchao Han, The National Interest: "Xi Jinping's rule will likely result in unprecedented disaster for China and the world given that his actions will adversely affect the global community."
The China Dream: Never Closer, Never More Elusive
This week marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. The next few decades may see the country's impact on the world reach new heights, says RAND's Timothy Heath. But Beijing also faces some serious obstacles on its path to becoming a dominant global leader. "With its economy softening and its politics gridlocked, an increasingly besieged China seems less and less likely to realize all of its goals," he says. Read more »
Why China’s Big Military Parade Is Nothing to Be Afraid Of
By Craig Hooper, Forbes: "Excessive Western pearl-clutching over new Chinese military technology is exactly what the Chinese regime wanted"

China Has Learned the Value of Amphibious Operations
By William J. Bowers & Christopher D. Yung, Proceedings: "Unable to project power across the Taiwan Strait in 1949 to pursue retreating Nationalist forces, the Chinese lost an important strategic opportunity."
After 70 years, Chinese Communism threatens the world more than ever
(The Hill) As the People’s Republic of China commemorates its 70th anniversary, as many as 80 million Chinese will not be around to observe the festivities. They perished in the first few decades of communist rule in China, victims of the murderous ideological orgies of Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward.
Please, no congratulations for China’s communists
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas 
To congratulate is to express joy on the achievements or good fortune of others. But James Pethokoukis is not sure the American president should express joy in the historic victory of the Chinese Communist Party.
The People’s Republic Of China Was Born In Chains
By Frank Dikötter via Foreign PolicyOn Oct. 1, 2019, the Chinese Communist Party will celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, an event referred to by the government as a liberation. It was a liberation that plunged the country into decades of Maoist cruelty and chaos. 

China’s Neo-Maoist Moment
By Elizabeth Economy via Foreign AffairsFew countries commemorate historical milestones with the zeal of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and 2019 offers a bonanza of celebratory opportunities: 70 years since the founding of the PRC and 40 years since Deng Xiaoping launched the economic reforms that opened China to the rest of the world. Xi Jinping is exploiting the anniversaries to evoke Mao Zedong and reassert the power of the Communist Party.
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    HOOVER: CHINA LEADERSHIP MONITOR

    Peering into crystal ball; future of war
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