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To Remain Effective, NATO Needs to Move Eastward
By Dan Gouré, RealClearDefense: "Although Russia's military strategy is officially defensive, the Russian Ground Troops' fundamental principle of land warfare is violent, sustained, and deep offensive action, just as it was during the Soviet era." 
Istanbul: 'Everything Is Coming Up Roses' by Burak Bekdil
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Why Erdogan’s historic Istanbul defeat is irreparable
The government’s defeat in Istanbul's mayoral election is nothing less than a historic watershed, for Erdogan lacks the means to remedy the factors behind this outcome, mainly the economic crisis bruising the country.
Istanbul's Election Puzzle by Daniel Pipes
Washington Times June 25, 2019 http://www.danielpipes.org/18916/istanbul-election-puzzle
Erdogan's Setback Could Yet Tilt Turkey to U.S.
By BENNY AVNI, Special to the Sun | June 25, 2019 https://www.nysun.com/foreign/erdogans-setback-could-yet-tilt-turkey-to-us/90744/  Libya’s Civil War: Navigating its Dangerous New Phase by Anas El Gomati Turkey and the UAE Fight It Out by Proxy in Libya by Seth Frantzman The Jerusalem Post June 29, 2019 https://www.meforum.org/58853/libya-proxy-war-comes-out-in-the-open Battle for Tripoli appears destined to grind on in Libya Since Libya’s eastern military commander Khalifa Hifter launched his April offensive against the capital Tripoli in the west, little progress has been made, while continuing attempts at peace have failed. Has Russia adjusted its Libya vision? Moscow seemingly embraced the new proposal on Libya peace put out by the head of the Government of National Accord but this doesn't necessarily mean Russia has given up on strongman Khalifa Hifter.
The Mounting Costs of a U.S.–Iran Faceoff Tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman. Iran's growing uranium stockpiles. Ongoing U.S. sanctions. And this morning, reports that Iran shot down a U.S. drone. Tensions between the United States and Iran are rising. Even if the two countries can avoid a military clash, there are still long-term costs for U.S. interests and regional stability. That's according to RAND's Dalia Dassa Kaye. Washington's maximum pressure campaign has led to angry U.S. allies and energized adversaries (including Russia), a more dangerous Iran, and the continued risk of military conflict. What's more, she says, these trends may be difficult to reverse. Read more » We Hold All The Cards In The Showdown With Iran by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness In May 2018, the Donald Trump Administration withdrew the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran, popularly known as the Iran nuclear deal. Net Assessment: Deciphering the Trump Administration’s Iran Policy by Melanie Marlowe, Bryan McGrath, and Christopher Preble America Cannot Afford a War With Iran By Charles V. Peña, RealClearDefense: “The operational difficulties, cost, and human toll are not reasons not to go to war—if U.S. national security and survival were at stake. But that is not the case with Iran." Iran on course to exceed nuclear pact limit within days: diplomats (Reuters) Iran is on course to breach a threshold in its nuclear agreement within days by accumulating more enriched uranium than permitted, although it had not done so yet by a deadline it set for Thursday, diplomats said, citing U.N. inspectors’ data. Egypt struggles to reunite Libyan factions
Egypt's plans to host rival Libyan factions in Cairo next week are up in the air after allies of the UN-recognized government in Tripoli refused to sit down with eastern-based lawmakers supportive of strongman Khalifa Hifter's assault on the capital. Egypt, which is close to Hifter, had hoped to host rival members of the House of Representatives in Cairo for three days, starting Saturday. The deputies were elected in June 2014 but almost immediately split into rival blocs, with the majority decamping from Tripoli to Tobruk later that year. But the Tripoli-based lawmakers have refused to attend, the Libya Herald reported this week, leaving Egypt's diplomatic surge in flux. They cited three main reasons: the agenda and aim of the Cairo meeting were thought to be unclear; most of them felt Egypt could not be a neutral facilitator; and some bristled at being contacted by the Egyptian ambassador to Libya, Mohamed Abu Bakr, insisting instead that Cairo recognizes and respect the leadership of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. Know more: — Can Egypt help end Tripoli offensive? ISRAELI DETERRENCE IN THE US-RUSSIAN RIVALRY & HAMAS' MISSILES; DENNIS ROSS SPEAKS ABOUT THE PLA6/21/2019
Iran Is Very Close to the Nuclear Threshold
By Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek, June 24, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Iran is threatening to resume its uranium enrichment effort to the point that it will be able to produce a nuclear bomb. According to Olli Heinonen, who served until 2010 as IAEA deputy director general, Iran will be in a position to acquire nuclear weapons within six to eight months. Continue to full article ->
Leveraging Iran
By Franc Milburn, June 21, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Mainstream analysis of the current crisis in US-Iran relations revolves around “maximum pressure” sanctions and potential American military contingencies. There is another move, however, involving a unique set of knights on the regional chessboard – and one that comes straight out of Tehran’s own playbook. Continue to full article ->
Israeli Nuclear Deterrence in Context: Effects of the US-Russian Rivalry
By Prof. Louis René Beres, June 20, 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Israel’s presumptive nuclear deterrence posture depends upon several separate but intersecting factors. Most important, of course, are the country’s weapons, infrastructures, and missile defense capabilities. Less conspicuously urgent, but still important, are the principal defining structures of world politics. These include (as ever) the fundamentally anarchic system created after the 1648 Peace of Westphalia (“The State System”) and the more transient or temporary US-Russian rivalry. This essay casts attention on the latter set of factors, or “Cold War II.” Israel’s strategists should pay close attention to this critical expression of geopolitical “context.” Continue to full article ->  Obituary: Mohamed Morsi by Samuel Tadros via The Washington Examiner The rise and fall of Mohamed Morsi, who died last week at age 67, captured the tribulation of the Arab Spring. Turkey's Erdogan vows to 'prosecute' Egypt for what he dubs killing of former President Morsi
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Wednesday that Turkey would seek justice for what he described as Egypt's killing of deposed President Mohammed Morsi. "Morsi did not die a natural death. He was killed," Erdogan said at an event in Istanbul ahead of next week's election do-over. “Turkey will do whatever it takes to prosecute Egypt in international courts.” Morsi, a Muslim Brotherhood member ideologically close to Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party, collapsed in a Cairo courtroom on Monday. In the same speech, Erdogan said a new UN report proves that top Saudi authorities were guilty and had prior knowledge of journalist Jamal Khashoggi's murder at Saudi Arabia's Consulate in Istanbul. He vowed that they would “pay the price and be held accountable.” In a statement, the Turkish Foreign Ministry called on UN member states and international bodies to take action after UN Special Rapporteur on Extrajudicial Executions Agnes Callamard found “credible evidence” that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was involved in the murder. Read More  What the Iron Lady Learned From Hong Kong Editorial of The New York Sun | June 13, 2019 https://www.nysun.com/editorials/what-the-iron-lady-learned-from-hong-kong/90727/ Thatcherism Without Thatcher Four decades after her triumph, what lessons can we draw from Britain’s first female prime minister? Brexit, European Security and Defence: Three Assumptions, Three Realities By Ben Kienzle, The UK in a Changing Europe: "The area of security and defence has been seen as one of the least controversial issues during the Brexit process. But even in this area assumptions have been important. The question is: have the major assumptions matched the reality that has evolved during the last three years?" EU Is Britain's Biggest Failure Since George III
By CONRAD BLACK, Special to the Sun | July 12, 2019 https://www.nysun.com/foreign/eu-stands-as-britains-biggest-fail-since-us/90761/ The long nightmare of Britain's relations with the European Union, the greatest failing of British government since the American Revolution, is finally coming to a climax. The flamboyant former mayor of London, Boris Johnson, is almost certain to be the next leader of the British Conservative Party and prime minister. Continue Reading  Crashing The Parties
by Josef Joffe via The American Interest In Europe, the ancien régime of the moderate Right and Left is falling prey to the disruptors—mainly rightwing populists, but also non-threatening environmentalists like the surging German Greens who appeal to the center. 
Anthony H. Cordesman writes: These methods of “hybrid” attack can be carried by individual ships and shows that are not part of Iran’s armed forces, that do not have Iranian flags or operators wearing Iranian uniforms, and that cannot be directly tied to actions by the Iranian government. They can be operated by proxies like the Houthis or “false flag” groups made up for the occasion, and the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN) and Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy (IRGCN) have established a growing presence in the Gulf of Oman based at Chabahar – to “prevent smuggling” – and in the Gulf of Aden and near Yemen to “deal with Somali pirates.” – Center for Strategic and International Studies
US policy faces blind spots on China, Middle East
The effects of US trade policy toward China may strike a blow on global markets and possibly affect US national security.
Kathy Gilsinan writes: Iran, meanwhile, has the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps at its disposal; proxies operating in numerous countries, including Yemen, on Saudi Arabia’s border; and the largest arsenal of ballistic missiles in the Middle East. The administration has cited intelligence saying that Iran was preparing attacks […]. There will doubtless be a partisan battle over whether the latest suspected attacks are proof that the threat was real all along, or proof that the administration’s purportedly deterrent and defensive moves could provoke a wider conflict. – The Atlantic
 Nick Grinstead writes: As Bashar tries to battle rebels and internal opponents alike, he is also struggling to balance the interests and objectives of his foreign backers, Iran and Russia, both of which have been instrumental in defending the regime. Their support, however, has come at a price. The regime has been forced to make economic concessions such as oil and gas exploration rights, preferential trade agreements in sectors such as agriculture, and contracts for reconstruction of war-ravaged areas. – Middle East Institute Steven Heydemann and Michael O’hanlon write: If U.S. and European allies wish to preserve possibilities for a political settlement that will provide security for Syrians — and not just for the Assad regime — now is the time to act. An alternative path to a real political settlement for Syria is still possible. To achieve it, however, will require increased U.S. and European pressure on the Assad regime and on Russia to end the current offensive. It will require closer U.S. cooperation with Turkey in removing radical Jihadist forces from northern Syria. – The Hill Turkey’s risky route in Idlib
Turkey is struggling to maintain a balance with Russia as it takes action to block the Syrian army at Idlib.
Decades Of Being Wrong About China Should Teach Us Something
by Amy Zegart quoting Michael Spence via The Atlantic Thirty years ago this week, I watched the news from Beijing and started shredding my bedding. It was the night before my college graduation, I had been studying Chinese politics, and news had broken that college students just like us had been gunned down in Tiananmen Square after weeks of peaceful and exhilarating democracy protests—carried on international TV. In the iconic square where Mao Zedong had proclaimed the People’s Republic decades before, bespectacled students from China’s best universities had camped out, putting up posters with slogans of freedom in Chinese and English. A “goddess of democracy” figure modeled after the Statue of Liberty embodied their hopes—and ours—for political liberation in China.
Hong Kong’s protests against China show U.S. appeasement of Beijing has failed to bring reform
A policy of moderation through economic seduction was delusional, but a shift to economic coercion without emphasizing human rights will be just as ineffective.
CHINA:
China Increases Construction Rate of Amphibs By Andrew Tate, IHS Jane's 360: “The eighth Type 071 (Yuzhao)-class amphibious assault ship on order for China's People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) was launched at the Hudong-Zhonghua shipyard in Shanghai on 6 June, making it the fourth of these 20,000 tonne landing platform dock (LPD) vessels to have entered the water since June 2017."
Michael Schuman writes: It has become almost an article of faith that the U.S. and China are stumbling into a tech cold war — a superpower slugfest for mastery of future technologies and, with them, the global economy. […]The best path for China may be to follow in the footsteps of Japan and Korea — to produce a few leading companies able to carve out a global presence and become an integral part of the world’s tech landscape. But that hardly describes a cold war. It sounds more like capitalist competition. – Bloomberg
Victor Davis Hanson On China
interview with Victor Davis Hanson via Hillsdale College Hoover Institution fellow Victor Davis Hanson discusses China.
The China Challenge
featuring Elizabeth Economy via City-Journal Elizabeth Economy offers a penetrating look at Xi Jinping’s aggressively antidemocratic regime.
Testimony: The Belt and Road is overhyped, commercially
Derek Scissors | Senate Committee on Finance Subcommittee on International Trade, Customs, and Global Competitiveness The Belt and Road Initiative as a whole has become a red herring.
An aging autocrat’s lesson for his fellow dictators
(The Atlantic ) Kazakhstan’s longtime leader ceded power to a self-appointed successor, who is all but certain to win this week’s election. 
Autocracy in Transition
A dispatch from Uzbekistan, a country caught between its past and present
JUDITH MILLER
The China Challenge Elizabeth Economy offers a penetrating look at Xi Jinping’s aggressively antidemocratic regime.  Dennis Ross writes: But the Iranians won’t make these concessions for free: they will seek the lifting of all sanctions, nuclear and non-nuclear. This would require Trump to decide how much he is prepared to give up. Obama was not willing to lift human-rights and terrorism-related sanctions. Trump, too, is likely to be reluctant to do so. Still, he might conclude that gaining time (an additional 15 years) and reducing the prospect of regional war between would be significant achievements. – Bloomberg Iran seeking to expand military program to weapons of mass destruction: German intelligence Benjamin Weinthal — Fox News While European powers still claim Iran’s regime is in compliance with the nuclear deal, a new German intelligence report accuses the Islamic Republic of seeking to build weapons of mass destruction. Fox News obtained a May 2019 intelligence document from the state of Bavaria detailing Iran’s nefarious weapons activities in the southern German state during the previous year. Iran is a “risk country” that is “making efforts to expand... Read More Iran’s rulers feel the pain Clifford D. May — The Washington Times Defenders of the nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran predicted that President Trump’s sanctions would have little impact unless our European friends joined in. They were dead wrong. That same crowd is now in a frenzy over President Trump deploying military assets to the Middle East to deter or, if necessary, punish attacks on Americans by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or its many proxies... Read More Merrill Matthews writes: The Iranian government is rattling sabers once again, and the Trump administration is rattling back. In years past those tensions would have sent world oil markets into a panic. Not so this time around — at least not yet. And one important reason is the U.S. has become so dominant in crude oil and natural gas production and export. – The Hill The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced on 24 May that the State Department has approved United Arab Emirates’ (UAE’s) request for air-to-surface missiles, additional Javelin anti-tank missiles, RQ-21A Blackjack small tactical unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and United States Marine Corps (USMC) training that are together estimated to be worth nearly USD1.2 billion. – IHS Jane’s Mohammed Alyahya writes: Mr. Trump’s policy of maximum pressure is showing signs of success. […]While a full conventional conflict is an outcome that is best avoided, it is important to be clear-eyed about the realities on the ground. The Islamic Republic is already at war. For nearly 40 years, it’s been conducting that war against U.S. allies and interests and American forces. – Wall Street Journal
Why Iran's Cash Crunch Isn't Disabling Hezbollah Yet by Todd Bensman
The Federalist May 24, 2019 https://www.meforum.org/58602/irans-cash-crunch-isnt-disabling-hezbollah-yet
5 lessons from the European election
Dalibor Rohac | Politico EU If European elections used to be a sedate affair, the 2019 iteration was anything but. Besides the obvious — a growing fragmentation of European politics, a solid but not dominant position of the far right, and an increasingly green left — five lessons emerge from this weekend’s vote. |
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