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turkey hit with emerging russian jihad:  crossroads

6/29/2016

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AEI Leon Aron "Russian Jihad" Coming
  • Istanbul attackers identified as Russian, Uzbek, and Kyrgyz
Turkish government officials say they are investigating the possibility that the bombing at Ataturk airport in Istanbul on Tuesday was carried out by Eastern European and Central Asian Islamic State militants. Though officials have only said publicly that they think one of the attackers was a foreigner, Turkish media have reported that the attackers were citizens of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and the Russian province of Dagestan, and that at least two of the attackers, including the organizer, Akhmed Chatayev, were of Chechen origin. Turkish police have raided 16 locations in Istanbul and Izmir believed to be associated with Islamic State militants in Turkey and have made 13 arrests in connection with the bombings.
Interview: The Cipher Brief sat down with Soner Cagaptay, Director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, to discuss the dramatic implications of Tuesday’s terrorist attack at Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport. – The Cipher Brief
 
Editorial: Istanbul shows that the threat of major, coordinated terrorist attacks by the Islamic State has not been much diminished by successes such as the recent recapture of the Iraqi city of Fallujah, or the killing of senior Islamic State commanders and organizers in U.S. raids and drone strikes. The elimination of the terrorists’ two principle bases, Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria, is necessary not just to liberate Iraqis and Syrians but also to protect the citizens of Western democracies and allies such as Turkey. Progress toward that goal is still too sluggish — especially when it comes to forging the political arrangements that will be necessary to create an Iraqi alliance that can capture multiethnic Mosul and peacefully govern it afterward. – Washington Post
 
Editorial: Coming after the terrorist atrocity in Orlando, Fla., the Istanbul attack is a reminder that the furies of the Arab world won’t stay confined if we merely leave Syria and Iraq alone. It may be too late for President Obama to understand that the power vacuums he created in the Middle East are the source of today’s global terror, but the next U.S. President cannot afford to be as naive. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Kori Schake writes: Neither Turkey nor Jordan can much longer withstand the combined pressures of millions of refugees, fear of terrorist attacks, and the way both those circumstances are changing political life in their countries. The crumbling of America’s allies is the unacknowledged cost of President Obama’s slow-roll strategy to defeat ISIS. – National Review Online
The three suicide bombers who attacked Istanbul's Ataturk Airport have been identified as nationals from Russia, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, a senior Turkish official said Thursday. – Washington Post
 
The death toll wrought by three suicide bombers at Turkey’s busiest airport rose Wednesday to 42 as the country grappled with what its leaders called a suspected Islamic State offensive that has pulled it deeper into the Middle East’s turmoil. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
A brazen assault by three suicide bombers on Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport has set the stage for a more violent conflict between Turkey and the Islamic State, a development that would deepen Turkish involvement in the Syrian civil war. – Washington Post
 
[T]he Turkish government and Western officials say the suicide bombings at Istanbul’s main airport on Tuesday bore the hallmarks of an Islamic State attack, and they have added them to a growing roll call of assaults attributed to the group in Turkey in recent months. Analysts said Turkey was paying the price for intensifying its action against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, ISIL or Daesh. – New York Times
Three suicide bombers attacked Ataturk airport in Istanbul last night, killing at least 41 people and wounding more than 230 others. At least one of the attackers opened fire on bystanders with an assault rifle before detonating his explosives, and video being reviewed by authorities shows some of the attackers being confronted by security guards before the blasts. Though most of the dead are Turkish, 13 of the victims were foreign nationals. Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim told press that initial findings from the investigation suggest the Islamic State is responsible. "This attack, targeting innocent people is a vile, planned terrorist act,” he said.
Three suicide attackers killed at least 41 people and wounded dozens more at Istanbul’s main airport on Tuesday night, in the latest in a string of terrorist attacks in Turkey, a NATO ally once seen as a bastion of stability but now increasingly consumed by the chaos of the Middle East. – New York Times
 
Turkish authorities combed through video and witness statements Wednesday following an assault by three suicide bombers at the country's largest airport , seeking to reconstruct an attack that killed at least 41 people and threatened to plunge Turkey into deeper uncertainty. – Washington Post
 
Three months after attacking Brussels airport, terrorists have shown in the attack on Istanbul’s international airport an alarming ability to stay one move ahead of the defenses put in place to stop them—an agility in planning that could present a new and serious threat to airports in the U.S. – The Daily Beast
 
The sudden rapprochement suggests that Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, is adopting a new, more conciliatory approach to foreign policy following an ill-fated period that was characterised by isolation and tensions with former allies. A return to a more pragmatic philosophy for the Nato member and regional power, which straddles Europe and the Middle East, would be a rare positive step in a region marred by instability — and one welcomed by foreign diplomats and investors. – Financial Times
Kurdish Regional Political Aspirations
The American Enterprise Institute's Michael Rubin has released a new report, "Kurdistan Rising: Considerations for the Kurds, Their Neighbors, and the Region," which examines the challenges to Kurdish political aspirations in the Middle East. The report says that the political reality of Iran, Iraq, and Syria's Kurdish populations is more complex than commonly assumed with intra-Kurdish politics playing home to a range of actors and agendas. Rubin argues that Iran, more than Turkey, is the largest impediment to the establishment of an independent Kurdish state.
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ahmed diyab:  vanished from gitmo, document expert, lose in south america

6/28/2016

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Stephen Hayes writes: A former Guantanamo detainee, Jihad Ahmed Mujstafa Diyab, is now missing. He was for years an expert in document forgery for al Qaeda and affiliated jihadists. The Obama administration agreed to transfer him to Uruguay despite the fact that military and intelligence professionals rated him a "high risk" detainee, someone who was "likely to pose a threat to the U.S., its interests and allies," and despite the fact that the president of Uruguay warned in advance that his country would not monitor him. The next time Barack Obama claims that his "highest priority is the security of the American people," be skeptical. – The Weekly Standard Blog
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iranian nuclear ambitions:  total intelligence

6/28/2016

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Foreign Policy Initiative: Total Intelligence 
Foundation for the Defense of Democracies
Standards & Non-Proliferation
Foreign Policy Initiative:  What We Know Now
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russian nuclear weapons:  growing threat of russian belligerence, including south china sea

6/27/2016

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  • US stalks Beijing’s claims in S. China Sea, Russia increases regional presence
Russian Belligerence
  • Russian frigate tried to interfere with carrier Truman
  • Russian FSB guard attacked US diplomat outside Moscow embassy
  • Kramer and Herbst on scrapping Ukraine’s Minsk agreement

Sources close to Russia’s military say the country is likely to deploy advanced nuclear-capable missiles in Kaliningrad, a slice of Russian territory between Poland and Lithuania, by 2019, fueling a standoff between Russia and the West. Russia has said the move is necessary to counter a U.S.-backed missile shield in the area, but experts agree that the country would probably have built the missiles regardless.     U.S. military officials say the shield was built to shoot down missiles from what it describes as rogue states such as Iran.     Ivan Konovalov, director of the Center for Strategic Trend Studies in Moscow, told Reuters that the missiles “are our ace card in the standoff over missile defense and NATO's activity around our borders. We need to use it cleverly. There's a big game going on and we don't want to throw it away at the start. We'll play it when Russia needs it most politically."     Russia experts say the missiles will likely be deployed in Crimea eventually as well.  ​
The Soviet Union’s old doctrine was: You deter World War III with nuclear weapons. Now Russia’s new doctrine: Threaten to use nuclear weapons against any major power that may try to block Moscow from having its way in a regional conflict, a specialist in Russian nuclear strategy said on Monday. – USNI News
 
Josh Rogin reports: In the early morning of June 6, a uniformed Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) guard stationed outside the U.S. Embassy in Moscow attacked and beat up a U.S. diplomat who was trying to enter the compound, according to four U.S. officials who were briefed on the incident. – Washington Post
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how china is countering u.s. containment strategy

6/27/2016

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CATO
Beijing's Strategy on South China Sea
China's Client State North Korea:  Missile Defense Technology
Editorial: South Korea’s security depends on an early decision to deploy Thaad. Japan needs to do the same, augmenting its U.S.-made X-band radar, deployed in 2014, with Thaad’s powerful interceptors. As a South Korean official said recently, upgrading missile defenses in Northeast Asia is a “live-or-die” matter. All the more reason to cheer this week’s drills. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
  • Matthew Kroenig: Asia’s multi-polar nuclear future
  • Colby, Thomas: Don’t scrap America’s alliances, fix them
Matthew Kroenig writes: This report has argued that nuclear multipolarity, although more diverse and more complex in many ways than nuclear bipolarity, may operate according to a coherent logic that can be understood through careful analysis. The report spelled out some of the most salient theoretical implications of nuclear multipolarity and traced its dynamics in contemporary Asia. Finally, it offered dozens of concrete policy recommendations that Washington can follow to secure U.S. interests. – National Bureau of Asian Research
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morocco:  trajectory

6/27/2016

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AEI
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iran's foreign policy:  the mess

6/27/2016

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“Iran’s Foreign Policy Is in Chaos. How Should America Respond?” (John Allen Gay, The National Interest)

“How should America react to all this? On the one hand, Arab-Iranian tensions are harmful to the United States, and U.S.-Iranian tensions are even more harmful. Actions to ease conditions for pro-rapprochement elements in Iran would follow from this approach. Yet on the other hand, a senior Iranian official has issued a barely concealed threat of violence against Bahrain, which hosts a major U.S. military base and is more or less an ally. (To make it a little more complicated, Washington is alsounhappy with how Manama has handled its domestic discord, including in the case of the cleric; Bahrain and its GCC allies, in turn, fear so much that America is abandoning them to Iran that they are lashing out in the region in ways highly detrimental to American interests.) When we focus on one side of the political equation in Iran, one set of U.S. policies would seem to follow; when we focus on the other, a different set of policies follows.”
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tunisia:  falling fast

6/27/2016

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“Jihadist Violence in Tunisia: The Urgent Need for a National Strategy” (International Crisis Group)

“Jihadist violence in Tunisia has expanded and diversified since the 2010-2011 uprising against the regime of then President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. While the government is determined to tackle this security challenge, it has yet to implement a multidimensional strategy that would enable it to address the root causes of violence thereby preventing it and appropriately increase the capacity of security forces to anticipate the threat, react quickly and coordinate and adapt their responses. Releasing a national strategy would clarify the requirements and priorities for a fight of this kind, and would enable a public debate, encouraging popular buy-in and thus pre-empting resistance to its application. It would also improve security collaboration between Tunisia and its regional and international partners, which are keen to see their financial and technical support integrated into a clear strategic vision. Political actors agree more or less on the strategic direction needed to tackle the problem, despite some divergence on the level of control over spaces of religious teaching and the balance between prevention and repression. The main problem is that the government has not yet published or implemented a responsive strategy -- one whose operational components can evolve to become more effective. The context is unfavourable: Tunisia’s security challenges are urgent and tend to provoke a repressive response; coordination between the heads of state and government is poor; numerous administrative obstacles remain between and within ministries; and the multiple ad-hoc counter-terrorism commissions often underperform and even fragment policymaking.”
Five years after the so-called Jasmine Revolution, Tunisians are trying to restore the economic prosperity and security of Bourguiba's time, while cultivating the citizens' rights and democracy that his three-decade rule lacked, and facing a population that is getting impatient waiting for results. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Jaclyn Stutz writes: ISIS is developing the ability to conduct a low-level insurgency in Tunisia. Its presence in neighboring Algeria and Libya, and now on the ground in Tunisia, strengthens the group. ISIS poses the greatest near-term threat to Tunisia, though AQIM has the potential to threaten the state, too. ISIS will next seek broad popular support to pursue a steady and destabilizing campaign within, and against, the state. – AEI’s Critical Threats
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trident II d5 nuclear subs & the brexit

6/27/2016

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U.K. Subs. One of the big known unknowns is what might now happen to the U.K.’s nuclear-missile submarine fleet. For decades, the Royal Navy has parked its four Vanguard nuclear-armed submarines at Faslane in Scotland, but with the Scots now clamoring to stay in the EU, London must be a bit nervous about where it would put those subs. There’s no other facility in the United Kingdom capable of housing the vessels, so Scottish independence would force a stark choice: Lose the capability altogether, or spend at least a decade building new port facilities.

Nukes. But Vice Adm. Terry Benedict -- who runs the U.S. Navy’s nuclear weapons program for its ballistic missile submarines -- said he’s not worried about the U.S./U.K. relationship. “I have no concern,” he said late last week. Brexit “was a decision based on its relationship with Europe, not with us.” But questions remain. The U.S. Naval Institute points out that the two sea services share production of their Trident II D5 missiles, and have been working to develop common missile compartments that will fit into the replacements for both the American Ohio-class ballistic missile and British Vanguard subs.
The Brexit & Putin Wash. Post
Michael McFaul writes: In the long run, Russia remains plagued by too many internal challenges and skittish EEU partners, while we in the West will find ways to recalibrate our cooperation. But the short-term shift in the balance of power between a united democratic Europe and an illiberal Russia is obvious, and troubling. – Washington Post

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia received the geopolitical equivalent of manna from heaven when British voters opted to leave the European Union, speeding his long-term goal of weakening the most powerful alliance confronting the Kremlin as it seeks to rebuild its superpower muscles. – New York Times
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iranian boots-on-the-ground:  shaping the near east

6/20/2016

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Defense One
Ray Takeyh writes: In the coming years, the Guards are likely to be a force in both Iranian as well as regional politics. The Guards and the hardline clerics have a relationship of mutual dependence. As deeply pious men, the Guards need the approbation of the priestly class. And as politicians seeking power and regional preeminence, the clerics need the reliable muscle of the Guards. The region’s future may yet be defined by the compact between these two forces. – Council on Foreign Relations
 
Emanuele Ottolenghi writes: [E]ven though these aircraft deals are legal – and even encouraged – by the U.S. Treasury, they come with great risk. These deals could make aircraft manufacturers unwittingly complicit in Iran’s support for atrocities and war crimes in Syria and for Hezbollah’s terror activities. This could certainly expose them to future sanctions. More likely is the threat of lawsuits from attorneys trying to collect $50 billion of outstanding judgments for victims of Iranian terrorism. These could create public relations nightmares if not costly legal battles. Thus, for Boeing and the others, it will not be easy to weigh risk and reward. – Foundation for Defense of Democracies
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getting beijing's attention

6/16/2016

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Ian Easton writes: A stable and prosperous future in Asia requires successful counter strokes against Chinese expansionism. Taiwan's change in government augers well for the security of Japan and other regional democracies. It also offers an opportunity for advancing American interests and making good on the promises of the pivot to Asia. In that regard, the time is right and there is much hard work to do. – Project 2049 Institute
How to THINK about Beijing's Approach to South China Sea
Todd Crowell writes: It is worth remembering that the first Chinese ADIZ covers only a portion of the country’ coastline, which brings into question whether they are meant serve any real defensive purpose, but rather they are mainly counters in the ongoing struggle over who controls the East and South China Seas. – Real Clear Defense
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iran gets paid

6/16/2016

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Foundation for the Defense of Democracies
W]estern investors first have to overcome a stumbling block — the wariness of western banks to work with Iranian institutions and individuals. Although many sanctions were lifted after Tehran reached a deal with western powers last year to scale down its nuclear activities, US sanctions related to issues such as facilitating terrorism remain in place. – Financial Times
 
Report: If Tehran wants to encourage foreign investment and alleviate international banks’ concerns, it also needs to end its support for terrorism, missile development, and destabilizing regional activities, and to reduce the economic power of the Revolutionary Guards and the supreme leader’s business empire. All of these factors increase the risks of investing in the Islamic Republic, regardless of what deal-sweeteners the White House provides. – Foundation for Defense of Democracies/Roubini Global Economics
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C.I.A. & Interrogation black cells

6/15/2016

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Wash. Post
The Guardian U.K.
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China:  South china & our response 

6/14/2016

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LTG David Barno, USA (Ret.) and Nora Benashel write: The United States needs to make tough decisions about whether to accept Chinese actions as a fait accompli, or to counter these actions more strongly. These proposals provide a stating point for a deeper conversation between the United States and its friends and allies in the region about China’s increasing progress toward unimpeded control of the South China Sea. – War on the Rocks
 
Eddie Linczer writes: Developing a robust defense relationship with Vietnam is crucial as the US deepens its network of maritime security partners in the Asia-Pacific. Close defense cooperation between Washington and Hanoi will send a clear message to Beijing that the US and its partners in Southeast Asia are determined to resist China’s coercive actions. – American Enterprise Institute
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orlando:  total intelligence

6/13/2016

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The FBI investigated the Orlando shooter for 10 months beginning in 2013, putting him under surveillance, recording his calls and using confidential informants to gauge whether he had been radicalized after the suspect talked at work about his connections with al-Qaeda and dying as a martyr. – Washington Post
 
President Barack Obama said the shooter who killed 49 people and injured 53 others at an Orlando gay nightclub apparently was self-radicalized and “an example of homegrown extremism.” – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
A day after the shooting, many details of the police response remained in question, and the police account continued to contain crucial gaps — perhaps most critically, what happened during the hours that Mr. Mateen was hiding in a nightclub bathroom as he spoke intermittently to the police by cellphone. – New York Times
 
The gunman who went on a shooting rampage in a popular gay nightclub here shot nearly all of his victims in the first stages of the assault, then was utterly “cool and calm” while he talked by phone to law enforcement officials about further carnage, claimed allegiance to the Islamic State and praised the Boston Marathon bombers, officials said on Monday. – New York Times
 
Investigators now face the question of how much the killings were the act of a deeply disturbed man, as his former wife and others described him, and how much he was driven by religious or political ideology. – New York Times
 
[T]he devastation in Orlando represents a danger that many U.S. counterterrorism officials warn will be harder to contain than the Islamic State’s aspirations for an extremist haven in the Middle East. – Washington Post
 
The FBI looked for a potential connection between Mateen and Abusalha in 2014 and did not find “ties of any consequence,” aside from the two men knowing each other “casually” from attending the same mosque, said the bureau’s director, James B. Comey, on Monday. But in the wake of Sunday’s attack in Orlando, there is a new focus on this small working-class town in South Florida and the mosque atttended by two of the most infamous Muslim extremists with U.S. roots. – Washington Post
 
A question now is how, or whether, Islam’s posture toward homosexuality figured in Omar S. Mateen’s killing of at least 49 people at a gay nightclub in Orlando after claiming allegiance to Islamic State. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Still traumatized and broken by the fallout of another major terrorist attack on the United States 15 years ago, Afghans said Monday they weren’t about to get worked up about the latest one. They have enough to worry about, they said, even though Sunday’s deadly rampage at a Florida nightclub has once again pushed their country back into the global headlines, perhaps unfairly. – Washington Post
 
[J]udging from the initial reaction, the attack in Florida resonated globally on Monday not as an American anomaly, but because it felt so universal. Orlando now takes a place with Paris, Brussels, Beirut, Bamako, San Bernardino and other cities struck by different incarnations of terrorism in recent years. – New York Times
 
Calling Mateen a “lone wolf” risks obscuring more than it reveals, according to Michael Smith, a counterterrorism expert and consultant, because it fails to accurately describe the threat posed by the Islamic State, and masks the relationship the group is building with its sympathizers abroad. – Foreign Policy
 
The Florida terrorist attack last weekend revealed multiple failures of Obama administration counterterrorism policies that critics say are hamstrung by liberal “political correctness.” – Washington Free Beacon
 
A major U.S. security contractor is under scrutiny for its security screening process after it continued to employ Orlando shooter Omar Mateen despite two FBI inquiries into his ties to terrorism. – Washington Free Beacon
 
Orlando Reaction
 
Audio: FPI Board Member William Kristol discussed the fallout and implications of the Orlando attack – The Weekly Standard Blog
 
Audio: FPI Fellow James Kirchick also discussed the fallout and implications of the Orlando attack – Newstalk 580 CFRA
 
FPI Fellow James Kirchick writes: One suspected, long before he even approached the podium, that no matter how many calls Omar Mateen made to 911 pledging his allegiance to ISIS, the president would not be able to bring himself to utter any variation of the word “Islam,” and instead grasp toward the chimera of gun control, and in that regard he didn’t disappoint. In its destructive reluctance to stand up for core liberal beliefs, the regressive American left will elect Donald Trump. – Tablet
 
Bret Stephens writes: It would require more humility than Mr. Obama is capable of mustering to admit that what happened in Orlando is also a consequence of his decisions—of allowing Iraq and Syria to descend to chaos; of pretending that we could call off the war on terror because fighting it didn’t fit a political narrative; of failing to defeat ISIS swiftly and utterly; of refusing to recognize the religious roots of terror; of treating the massacre in San Bernardino as an opportunity to lecture Americans about Islamophobia, and Orlando as another argument for gun control. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Ayaan Hirsi Ali writes: This is not primarily about guns or immigration. It is about a deeply dangerous ideology that is infiltrating American society in the guise of religion. Homophobia comes in many forms. But none is more dangerous in our time than the Islamic version. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
 
Eli Lake writes: there are good reasons why Obama -- and President George W. Bush before him -- did not describe jihadists in explicitly Islamic terms. It was not because they are cowed by political correctness. Rather it was because the wider war on radical Islamic terrorism requires the tacit and at times active support of many radical Muslims. – Bloomberg View
 
Danielle Pletka writes: Forty-nine Americans are dead at the hands of an ISIS-inspired terrorist. But for all that we know about the killer himself, there are some tough questions that remain unanswered, questions whose answers could help prevent another such attack. – AEI Ideas
 
Max Boot writes: This will be a long war, and it will be fought by a variety of means, some kinetic, many not. In many ways, this conflict resembles the Cold War, a multigenerational struggle waged with varied instruments. We can only hope that this conflict will end as satisfactorily from our vantage point as the Cold War did. - Commentary
 
Thomas Joscelyn writes: The jihadists' belief in "martyrdom," as twisted as it is, has only become more prevalent during the past decade and a half. Perhaps the U.S government should be seeking ways to discredit this idea, instead of pretending it is not what motivates men to commit heinous acts. – The Weekly Standard Blog
 
Daveed Gartenstein-Ross writes: Just as ISIS claiming an attack does not prove that its overall network played a strong role, lack of immediately obvious connections to the broader organization does not necessarily mean an attack is lone wolf in nature. – New York Daily News
 
David Gomez writes: It’s too late for the Orlando victims, but a future change in what allows for opening a full FBI investigation may assist in preventing future acts of terrorism. Perhaps it is time for a return to the pre-9/11 standard for investigating terrorists — particularly if the need for the prevention of terrorist acts in the homeland is how the FBI is going to be judged in the future. – Foreign Policy
Zalmay Khalilzad writes: The challenge of Islamic terrorism defies any quick, short-term solutions. A comprehensive strategy is needed to address the root causes of the threat, which ultimately emanate abroad. But the Orlando attacks underscore that our domestic defenses are just as vital to preserve our freedoms. – The National Interest
The ex-wife of the 29-year-old man suspected of killing 50 people in a Orlando nightclub early Sunday said that he was violent and mentally unstable and beat her repeatedly while they were married. – Washington Post
 
FBI special-agent-in-charge Ron Hopper told reporters that Mateen had been interviewed twice in 2013 after he made comments to co-workers about potential ties to terror groups, and another time in 2014. - Politico
Foreign Policy Initiative:  Total Intelligence Brief 
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beijing's interior threatened

6/13/2016

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Parents in at least two dozen Chinese cities have taken to the streets in recent weeks to denounce a government effort to expand access to higher education for students from less developed regions. The unusually fierce backlash is testing the Communist Party’s ability to manage class conflict, as well as the political acumen of its leader, Xi Jinping. – New York Times
 
China’s corporate debt risks sparking a bigger crisis if the authorities fail to tackle it, the International Monetary Fund has warned. – Financial Times
 
China’s central bank has burnt through nearly half a trillion dollars in foreign reserves to support its currency since August, despite criticism it has betrayed its commitment to let market forces drive the exchange rate. – Financial Times
 
Fixed-asset investment in China grew at its slowest rate for 16 years in the first five months of this year, as private companies held off spending and left the state sector to keep the economy humming. – Financial Times
 
Editorial: The Obama administration should not yield on this point, unless and until China shows irreversible progress on economic reform, including, specifically, its subsidized excess industrial capacity. For the sake of prosperity in both countries, it’s a fight worth having. - Washington Post
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libya advances against islamic state

6/9/2016

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Libyan forces are tightening the net around the Islamic State's stronghold in the city of Sirte, according to the AP. Troops aligned with the internationally-recognized Libyan government based in Tripoli tell the newswire that they're now just three miles from the city's center. Sirte is the only city the jihadist group controls in Libya and its sole urban center outside its self-styled caliphate in Iraq and Syria. Armed groups flourished in the chaos following the ouster of Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi and a number of Islamic State officials have traveled from Syria to the country in recent months in an attempt to strengthen its beachhead there.
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russian drones

6/9/2016

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Russia is gearing up to sell an export version of its Orlan-10 drone, according to Army Recognition. Rosoboronexport, Russia's state-run arms export agency, says it's seeing plenty of customer interest in the reconnaissance UAV. The drone has made frequent appearances in the skies above Syria and Ukraine, occasionally showing up in wreckage on the ground after being shot down or crashing. Rosoboronexport Deputy Director Sergey Goreslavsky says Russia's drone industry is finally catching up to its competition in the international market after years of neglecting the field.
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they're here!!!!

6/9/2016

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Hezbollah's terrorism finance operations are thriving across Latin America months after the Drug Enforcement Administration linked the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group to drug cartels in the region, U.S. lawmakers were told Wednesday. – Washington Times
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are u.s. policy makers misreading china?

6/7/2016

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Wash. Times
AEI:  U.S. Must Carry Big Stick
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u.s. strategic nuclear deterrence

6/7/2016

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CSBA Center for Strategic Budgetary Assessments
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china, mao & true revolutions

6/3/2016

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The party closed the book on the [Cultural Revolution] era in 1981 without holding Mao responsible or apologizing to the nation. It instead rendered a verdict that the movement was a "catastrophe" caused by mistaken policies and a handful of self-serving political radicals. A further re-examination of the decade might further threaten its legitimacy to rule; last month's 50th anniversary of the beginning of the Cultural Revolution was met mostly with stony official silence. – Associated Press
 
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) writes: The lesson of Tiananmen Square is that you do not reform authoritarian regimes by enriching them while leaving their crimes against their own people unmentioned. You do it by raising these issues again and again, even if it causes occasional discomfort in diplomatic circles. It is well past time that we recognize this truth, and I hope and pray that next year we can honor this anniversary under a sign bearing Liu Xiaobo’s name. – National Review Online
 
Derek Scissors writes: China’s investment around the world has reached new highs every year this decade. This year it will likely smash the 2015 total, topped by a record $45 billion acquisition. Yet the outlook may be for a shortfall – many Chinese firms, including those owned by the state, face new financial limits. Governments and businesses dealing with them must adjust or risk getting burned. – Real Clear Markets
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india, modi's arrival & defense reforms

6/3/2016

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June 29, 2016  
Within days of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Washington this month, and India's entry into Missile Technology Control Regime backed by President Barack Obama, New Delhi has sought to buy Predator drones from US-based General Atomics through the Foreign Military Sales program. – Defense News
 
Despite US support, India was unable to gain entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) at the June 23-24 Seoul plenary meeting because of Chinese opposition. However, analysts in India say the government will continue its push to join the elite club. – Defense News
India is now officially a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), a voluntary organization of mostly advanced, western countries dedicated to controlling the proliferation of missile technology. The move will open up a range of weapons technologies to India and some in the country hope it will help pave the way to membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group. India developed its nuclear program outside the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and has been hoping to joint the nuclear export club despite not being an NPT signatory.
Project Syndicate:  US Indian Relations
After nearly thirty years, India is allowing overseas original equipment manufacturers (OEM) to hire defense agents per new guidelines in the Defence Procurement Procedure 2016 policy, according to an Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) official. – Defense News
Center for Islamic Pluralism:  India & Communism in Kerala
FPI Foreign Policy Initiative:  Modi Arrives in U.S. Summary
India is looking to sell its new BrahMos cruise missile abroad with a particular eye towards countries wary of China, Reuters reports. India has jointly developed the missile with Russia, and so far, Vietnam is at the top of a list of potential customers. The Philippines is also rumored to be eyeing a BrahMos purchase, alongside Malaysia, Thailand and United Arab Emirates. India had refrained from offering the missile to country’s locked in territorial disputes with the People's Republic, but experts say Prime Minister Narendra Modi now believes that building a network of defense alliances in the region will provide it greater leverage.
India has stepped up efforts to sell an advanced cruise missile system to Vietnam and has at least 15 more markets in its sights, a push experts say reflects concerns in New Delhi about China's growing military assertiveness. - Reuters
  • US, India mark new moment in relations
  • US firm to build six nuclear reactors in India
  • McCain: The promise of US-India ties
Senator Ben Cardin (D-Md.) is hinting that there may be a big U.S.-India defense news announced during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the United States this week. Defense News reports that the news might involve a Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), which had been the subject of talks between the U.S. and India during Defense Secretary Ash Carter's visit to the country in April. The LEMOA could allow for the U.S. to engage in defense-related technology transfers. The U.S. is also working on two other agreements with India related to communications security and geospatial intelligence.
After decades of mistrust and fitful reconciliation efforts, the relationship between India and the United States is expected to reach new heights of cooperation on Tuesday during a visit by the Indian prime minister, and Donald J. Trump can claim at least some of the credit. – New York Times
 
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits the United States this week with an eye toward squeezing some concessions out of the U.S., after he gave President Obama a big win by agreeing to sign the Paris climate agreement, and also agreed to an agreement to limit trafficking in wildlife. – Washington Examiner
Indian military officials and analysts are decrying the creation of three committees set up to assist with defense reform, saying that the panels will only delay the reform and weapons acquisition processes. – Defense News
 
Two years ago there were questions over whether Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi could get a visa to enter the United States. Next week he visits Washington as one of President Barack Obama's closest international partners. - Reuters
AEI:  What is Indian GDP?
AEI:  Modi & Limits of Reform
Dhume's Blog AEI
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new saudi oil minister speaks

6/3/2016

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The new oil minister in Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the OPEC countries, had a message for the global market: Don’t expect us to influence the price of crude oil by adjusting supplies. – New York Times
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poland's constitutional crisis

6/3/2016

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