DEMOGRAPHY - PraetoriumStrategy.com

EXPLOSIVE DEMOGRAPHIC GLOBAL SOUTH & WHY MINIMUM WAGE LAWS DON'T MATTER

3/15/2023

AEI PROFILE, NICHOLS EBERSTADT

WHY MINIMUM WAGE LAWS DON'T MATTER

The Geography of Work
Nicholas Eberstadt and Peter Van Ness | National Affairs
Social scientists and policymakers tend to be infected with a whole array of unarticulated assumptions about work in America that simply do not comport with the facts on the ground.
Full Story

https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/89183

A Revolution Is Coming for China’s Families

China’s Collapsing Birth and Marriage Rates Reflect a People’s Deep Pessimism

Destiny, Demos and Graphics

Discussing America’s Invisible Employment Crisis: Eberstadt Speaks with John Anderson

CHINA'S DEMOGRAPHIC COLLAPSE

3/3/2023

China’s Changing Family Structure: Dimensions and Implications

The Future of Global Population

Is China Shrinking?

China’s Revolution in Family Structure: A Huge Demographic Blind Spot with Surprises Ahead
Nicholas Eberstadt and Ashton Verdery | February 2023

This report maps out recent and prospective trends in China’s family structure and kinship network patterns and assesses the social, economic, and political implications of these changes. We believe this is the first such study ever undertaken for a major national population.
The report maps out changing family patterns through demographic modeling techniques, which simulate trends in family formation based on existing demographic data.
Because statistics on family networks are not collected in China (or almost anywhere else), this area represents a blind spot for policymakers—a potentially fateful one, as shown in this report.

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THE DARIEN GAP: SOURCE OF IMMIGRATION AS OFFICIAL BIDEN POLICY & CHINA'S DEMOGRAPHIC COLLAPSE

2/9/2023

China’s First Proxy War in Africa: Why Is the State Department Siding with Beijing?
Michael Rubin | 19fortyfive.com

China’s Revolution in Family Structure: A Huge Demographic Blind Spot with Surprises Ahead
Nicholas Eberstadt and Ashton Verdery | American Enterprise Institute
This report maps out recent and prospective trends in China’s family structure and kinship network patterns and assesses the social, economic, and political implications of these changes.
Full Story

The Worrisome Erosion of the One China Policy
By Michael D. Swaine, The National Interest: “Washington and Beijing to explicitly agree on a set of reciprocal, credible reassurance measures that will breathe life back into their original understanding regarding Taiwan.

See You Soon, Alligator
Even as their state lost more residents last year than ever before—thousands of them moving to Florida—New York policymakers seem to have no answers.

THE TABLET

Assaults on US Democracy, Election Integrity and the Constitution

CFR’s Zongyuan Zoe Liu discusses population decline and other challenges to China’s economy.

China’s population fell to 1.41 billion in 2022, a decrease of 850,000 people compared to the previous year, the country’s statistics bureau announced (Bloomberg)
China population: 2022 marks first decline in 60 years
requires deep structural change
will affect a long-held assumption

Reversal in the Year of the Rabbit
China’s demographic decline and waning fortunes are a result of the Communist Party’s power madness—and they heighten the danger.

AEI NICHOLAS EBERSTADT

WATER WARS

The PLA's People Problem
China's military has long struggled to field quality personnel.

The Game of Life
Ian Rowe | Institute for Family Studies
Ian Rowe recommends four steps to inspire the rising generation to have more children born into stable, married, two-parent households—one of the best predictors of a life of agency.
Full Story

CHINA'S MIDDLE INCOME TRAP IS DEMOGRAPHIC; INDIA'S POPULATION OVERCOMES CHINA APRIL 2023

1/26/2023

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/01/china-will-lose-a-billion-people-by-2100/

GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY: HOOVER INSTITUTION PRESS

12/8/2022

Checking the American Presidency
Philip Wallach | Law & Liberty
If we direct our still-present fear of overweening presidents into the right institutional outlets, the Constitution's system of ambition counteracting ambition still provides the best means to restore balance to our politics.
Full Story

HOOVER Q&A

The Truth about Demographic Decline
by lyman stone
Americans still express their desire for a long, healthy life with a spouse and children. But its harder for them to attain it.
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Central planning cannot correct demographic problems, but that doesn't mean we can't know what the "right" demographic outcome is.
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No one doubts the importance of culture, but policy can affect birth rates too.
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Promoting a culture of life is the true way to combat demographic decline.
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NEW LANDSCAPES OF POPULATION CHANGE

Winter is nature's gift: a season for silence, reflection, and leisure.
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AMAZON

Paul Ehrlich’s Interview on 60 Minutes Shows the Need to Finally Defeat Degrowth Environmentalism

No Government Has Killed More People Through Incompetence Than Communist China

The Bookmonger: ’China After Mao’ By Frank Dikötter

Frank Dikotter On How China Changed (And Didn’t) After Mao

MEN NOT AT WORK, DEMOGRAPHY & WORK IN AMERICA

10/30/2022

Men (Not) at Work
by nicholas eberstadt
Nicholas Eberstadt discusses the phenomenon of workless American men with host Samuel Gregg.
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America the Friendless
by adam m. carrington
Aristotle reminds us that friendship is an important political good, and a central part of a well-lived life.
READ MORE ›

Claude Barfield credits this ineffectiveness to a divide between the European and American domestic agendas. To prevent China from hedging forward as the world leader in international influence and national strength, the US must grow at least as fast as, if not faster than, China. Pethokoukis inspects demographic trends and suggests pro-growth policies the US can adopt to help close the gap.

Why Another US Debt Ceiling Showdown Could Be a Disaster

America Can Grow Faster Than China. Let’s Make It Happen!

In a new report, Scott Winship investigates the populist narrative that declines in men's earning prospects have driven the substantial decline in sole-breadwinner families. Measuring changes in men's material marriageability, Winship finds the social and cultural consequences of affluence more to blame for changes in family structure.

According to Michael R. Strain, new data from the Congressional Budget Office refute the conventional wisdom on stagnating incomes and rising inequality in America. "If the narrative choice is between 'growth' and 'stagnation,'" writes Strain, "the wage and income data point to the former."

Mao’s Party Never Ends
Featuring Frank Dikötter and Michael R. Auslin via Pacific Century
Misha Auslin is joined by his Hoover colleague historian Frank Dikötter to talk about the latter’s new book, China After Mao, how the West misunderstands the Chinese Communist Party's nature, and why the idea of a liberalizing China has always been a chimera.

THE GLOBAL SOUTH: STATISM & AUTOCRACY VS. A CHILDLESS WEST

9/9/2022

The Depopulation Bomb
Nicholas Eberstadt and Peter Robinson | Uncommon Knowledge
Nicholas Eberstadt joins Peter Robinson to examine the societal and social impacts of countries being unable to sustain a population-replacement birth rate.

Montesquieu’s Warning About Our Childlessness
What can Americans learn from Montesquieu to address the nation's population decline?
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It is good to stay healthy, but today's narcissistic gym culture leads away from the path of virtue.
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The Influencer
Charles Murray’s social science is sometimes provocative, usually controversial, and always significant to the national debate.

AEI POLICY TRACKER

The Baby Jihad: 'We're Taking Over Your Country.'by Raymond Ibrahim
The Stream
September 7, 2022
https://www.meforum.org/63564/the-baby-jihad-were-taking-over-your-country

The Rather Mixed Legacy of Mikhail S. Gorbachev
Benjamin Zycher | RealClearMarkets

Gorbachev, Idealism, and the End of the Soviet Union
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas

China's and Russia's Lies Are Winning Over the Global South
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion

The Taliban Embraces Crystal Meth
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner

The Best Marriage Prep Is Adult Prep

The Lessons Of 9/11 Are Still Unlearned
by Bruce Thornton via Front Page Magazine
Our credentialed mavens can’t break free of their institutional orthodoxy and narratives.

PGMs: Iran’s Precision-Guided Munitions Project in the Shadow of a Nuclear Deal

JUDY SHELDON, THE US GOES THE WAY OF THE SOVIET UNION

Discredited mercantilist notions shape many of our present economic debates.
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Monetary Policy Lessons for the Federal Reserve
Desmond Lachman | Hill
Desmond Lachman reflects on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's notable speech last week and the Fed's streak of hawkish monetary policy. Lachman says that Powell continues to ignore the most important lesson from past monetary policy experience, on which almost all economists agree: that monetary policy operates with long and variable lags.

What's Wrong With Being Sworn In On The Qur'an? – David Horowitz Freedom Center https://t.co/10sZysqvLC
— gk68 (@gk68) September 2, 2022

Our Ship Of State Is Becoming A Ship Of Fool

Navy Secretary’s One-Year Status Report Talks About Everything… Except Sea Power
By Dakota L. Wood, RealClearDefense: "In the Indo-Pacific, the Navy faces a three-to-one numerical disadvantage in fleet size compared to China’s navy."

AL-MONITOR REVIEW FOR AUGUST

In Defense of the NatCons
Michael Brendan Dougherty | National Review

Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan write: Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly relying on irregular volunteer and proxy forces rather than conventional units and formations of the Russian Federation Armed Forces. […]Putin’s souring relationship with the military command and the Russian (MoD) may explain in part the Kremlin’s increasing focus on recruiting ill-prepared volunteers into ad-hoc irregular units rather than attempting to draw them into reserve or replacement pools for regular Russian combat units. – Institute for the Study of War

CHINA IS SHRINKING, FAST

8/1/2022

Is China Shrinking?
Nicholas Eberstadt and Peter Van Ness | AEIdeas
According to the UN Population Division (UNPD), China’s population has peaked and began shrinking earlier this year. Nicholas Eberstadt and Peter Van Ness explain that China’s rate of population decline is projected to accelerate, marking a major reassessment of China’s demographic outlook. Previously, the UNPD did not envision China’s population peaking until 2031. The driver hastening China’s population decline is plunging Chinese childbearing—a tendency that predated the COVID-19 pandemic. These revisions should be only the beginning of a reassessment of what we know about China’s population, and they should offer a cautionary note about the reliability of other quantitative information about China. Learn more here >>

Biden’s Taiwan Strategy Is Flawed Whether Pelosi Goes or Not
Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion
The controversy over Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) proposed visit to Taiwan is just a part of the standard arm wrestling between Beijing and Washington over Taiwan’s place in the world. But there may be something deeper in President Joe Biden’s anxiety about a potential Taiwan crisis: a realization that America’s China policy is courting dangers the US isn’t ready to handle, notes Hal Brands. The problem is that Washington’s China rhetoric has overtaken its China policy, and the US is badly positioned for a prospective crisis over Taiwan. Amid a protracted proxy war in Ukraine, Washington is bound to be on its back foot if mayhem erupts elsewhere. Read More >>

Europe's Twilight: Christianity Declines, Islam Rises by Giulio Meotti

THE END OF ROE

5/4/2022

THE SURPRISING CASE FOR MARRYING YOUNG

NO REALLY....WHY DAD'S ARE SEXY

The best way to find happiness is not by pursuing happiness itself, but by pursuing virtue.
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Freedom and prosperity are the most effective cure for the scars of slavery and racism.
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The End of a 50-Year Chapter

Roe’s Demise

An Originalist Victory
J. Joel Alicea | City Journal
The Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling is a tremendous success for the constitutional theory around which conservatives rallied for nearly half a century.

A Return to Fundamentals

Betsy DeVos Has Much to Teach

Why Originalism Is Consistent with Natural Law: A Reply to Critics
J. Joel Alicea | National Review

Statesmanship & the Dangers of Civil Religion
By Bruce Frohnen on Jun 27, 2022 03:00 pm
Demands for statesmanship tend to hold up a model of greatness in political leadership that is profoundly dangerous. The desire to be “great” by upholding the interests of the nation as a political whole promotes a massive increase in the extent and centralization of political power. I recently attended a conference on statesmanship. Truth be ...
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Romano Guardini & “The End of the Modern World”
By Mark Malvasi on Jun 27, 2022 04:00 pm
Nearly seventy years after the publication of Romano Guardini's "The End of the Modern World," the rot has advanced too far to entertain any serious prospect of restoring a Christian social order in which, as Guardini insisted, “faith will maintain itself against animosity and danger” and “man’s obedience to God will assert itself with a ...
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Dobbs and the Days Ahead: Valuing Constitutional Institutions and Human Life
Adam J. White | AEIdeas
The Supreme Court finally recognized that Roe v. Wade had no actual basis in the Constitution’s text. Unfortunately, the Court’s affirmation of the Constitution will trigger attacks on the Court itself.
Full Story

Young men face far worse life prospects if they grow up living apart from their biological father, according to an Institute for Family Studies brief coauthored by AEI's W. Bradford Wilcox. "Lacking the day-to-day involvement, guidance, and positive example of their father in the home, and the financial advantages associated with having him in the household," the authors write, "these boys are more likely to act up, lash out, flounder in school, and fail at work as they move into adolescence and adulthood."

The Disappearing American?

INDIA'S FALLING BIRTH RATE

2/11/2022

BLACK AND WHITE POVERTY IN AMERICA & FRANCE GETS SERIOUS ABOUT ISLAM

6/14/2021

Martha Lee: Is France Getting Serious about Islamism? by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
August 30, 2021
https://www.meforum.org/62603/lee-is-france-getting-serious-about-islamis

Long shadows: The Black-White gap in multigenerational poverty

More than half a century after the passage of the Great Society's expansions of government aid to the poor, racial gaps in poverty and opportunity remain a cause for national concern. In a new report, AEI's Scott Winship and coauthors find that while three-generation poverty occurs among only one in 100 White Americans, it is experienced by one in five Black adults. The persistence of this gap suggests that though efforts to increase mobility and break cycles of poverty have achieved some success, the work is far from complete.

AEI: PARENTS, DON'T BREAK THE BANK WITH SCHOOLS

US POPULATION DECLINE

The consumption, income, and well-being of single-mother-headed families 25 years after welfare reform
Twenty-five years after welfare reform, the material circumstances of the most disadvantaged single mothers have noticeably improved — and at a faster rate than for those in comparison groups.
Full Story

Biden Letting China Get Away with Crime of the Century by Gordon G. Chang

Looking at the puzzle of falling US birth rates
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas

The real ‘tax gap’ is the one between progressive spending dreams and economic reality
James Pethokoukis | AEIdeas
It’s hard to avoid the fundamental mismatch between the left’s spending dreams and the economics of taxation.

WHY WE HAVE A BORDER CRISIS

3/27/2021

What’s Driving the Border Crisis?
By Timothy Kane via Defining Ideas
Tim Kane argues that “push” factors such as poverty, famine, and gang violence can’t completely explain the border crisis, because data indicate that today’s Central American migrants are largely fleeing countries that have experienced relative economic growth, declining homicide rates, and a reduction in poverty in recent years. Kane maintains that, alternatively, “pull” factors, such as deportation waivers and sanctuary laws over the last decade, have been powerful incentives for asylum seekers and are likely responsible for a surge of Central American migration to the United States.

MAKING MEN MARRIAGEABLE

2/28/2021

Making young men marriageable
W. Bradford Wilcox | American Compass

Jane Austen’s Vision of a Happy Marriage

American politics: The Republican Party’s way forward
Colin Dueck and Theda Skocpol | The Swedish Institute of International Affairs

RYAN STREETER
Opportunity Knocks
Cities hoping to attract footloose workers should embrace growth and affordability.

More Reasons Catholics Aren’t Marrying

CHINA SEEKS TO CREATE A NEW MASTER RACE

2/12/2021

China Is Creating a New Master Race
by Gordon G. Chang

Britain: A Sanctuary for Deadly Islamic Terrorists by Raymond Ibrahim
American Thinker
February 18, 2021
https://www.meforum.org/62034/britain-sanctuary-for-deadly-islamic-terrorists

U.S. FERTILITY COLLAPSING FAST

2/6/2021

5.8 million fewer babies: America’s lost decade in fertility
Lyman Stone explains that the consequences of low fertility today will echo through Americans’ increasingly empty homes for decades to come, leaving millions more people isolated and adrift from wider society as they age.
READ MORE

IRAN'S DEMOGRAPHY & THE QUEST FOR A BOMB

2/1/2021

Iran’s demographics and the quest for nuclear weapons
Michael Rubin | 19fortyfive.com

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps reality that Biden must recognize
Michael Rubin | Washington Examiner

TURNING BOYS INTO MEN

1/27/2021

We No Longer Make Boys Into Men

Time for the Theological Virtues
Rod Dreher and The Nostalgia Option

EXPOSED: THE SAUDI GENDER GAP

12/12/2020

Muslim apostasy, to the new “strategic corridor of power” between Israel and the Gulf States and the narrowing Saudi gender gap.

Is the Saudi Gender Gap Narrowing? by Ahmed H. Alrefai
Middle East Quarterly
Winter 2021 (view PDF)
https://www.meforum.org/61824/is-the-saudi-gender-gap-narrowing

AMERICA'S LEADING DEMOGRAPHER RECEIVES IRVING KRISTOL AWARD

10/15/2020

NAOMI SCHAEFER RILEY
Relativizing Discipline
When is child abuse not really child abuse? When it’s part of your heritage, apparently.

‘Platonic Parenting’ and the War on Love
Anthony Esolen
The latest step of our descent into selfishness and perversity is a trend called “platonic parenting.” A woman finds a stud male who is pleasant enough, who will be her “friend,” who will make no claims upon her, so that he can get her pregnant and they can raise the resultant experiment together while they […]

2020 Irving Kristol Award remarks
Nicholas Eberstadt | Irving Kristol Virtual Lecture and Summit
Full Story

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POWELL'S "RIVER OF BLOOD" SPEECH ON U.K. DEMOGRAPHY & RACE RELATIONS

6/9/2020

Alejandro Macarrón on the West's "Demographic Suicide" by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
September 29, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61587/macarron-on-the-wests-demographic-suicide

Pater Familiar
The role of fathers has changed, and little in the lives of men prepares them to meet the new expectations.

should_he_have_spoken__by_roger_scruton_published_in_the_new_criterion_september_2006.pdf
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An "Unimaginable Nightmare": The Abduction, Rape, and Forced Conversion of Christian Girls in Egypt by Raymond Ibrahim

France: More Terrorism, More Silence by Giulio Meotti

Todd Bensman on Jihadi Infiltration into Europe by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Webinar
September 25, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/61575/bensman-on-terrorist-migration-into-europe

HOW THE MYTHOLOGY OF "SOULMATE" DESTROYS MARRIAGE PROSPECTUS'

5/21/2020

The Economics of Marriage in Greta Gerwig’s “Little Women”

For as long as our love shall last: How the soulmate myth makes marriage less stable and less happy
W. Bradford Wilcox | Institute for Family Studies

EXPLAINING ISRAEL'S EXPLODING DEMOGRAPHY & DECLINE OF US RELIGIOSITY

4/14/2020

Urban, Dense: A Defense
Alex Armlovich, Manhattan Institute

Israel's Role Among the Nations—A Speech by Yoram Hazony at JLC 2019

In a moving speech at the 2019 Conference on Jews and Conservatism, Israeli political philosopher Yoram Hazony showed how Israel's national pride and civilizational confidence can help restore and renew Western civilization. Watch Now (26 minutes).

2) Israel's Demographic Miracle

Alone among the advanced democracies of the world, Israel is experiencing a demographic boom. In an important Mosaic essay a few years ago—on the occasion of the Jewish state's 70th anniversary—Ofir Haivry took a close look at the meaning of Israeli vitality. Read or Print Now.

Promise and peril: The history of American religiosity and its recent decline
Lyman Stone | American Enterprise Institute
American religiosity is in rapid decline according to numerous measures.

America is an upwardly mobile society
Michael R. Strain | Mercatus Center
What we care about most is whether today’s young people will be upwardly mobile. We should pursue that goal aggressively, as if the American dream is slipping from our grasp — even if it’s not.

HOW THE PANDEMIC ENDS CITY LIFE IN AMERICA

4/4/2020

MANHATTAN INSTITUTE

Vindicating Jaffa and Property Rights

Michael Greve discusses the daunting prospects for the Roberts Court in a closely divided country. Read More »

Marriage with family at its center
W. Bradford Wilcox | The Wall Street Journal

Soulmate marriage, RIP
W. Bradford Wilcox | Institute for Family Studies

REAGAN FOUNDATION ESSAYS

The future of conservative foreign policy: Political realities and electoral viability
Kori Schake | Reagan Foundation

Becoming more competitive with China
Dan Blumenthal | Reagan Foundation

Democracy and authoritarianism: How should values matter in foreign policy?
Colin Dueck | Reagan Foundation

E21: PUBLIC DEBT CHALLENGES W/ COVID

Cities and States Face a Bleak and Uncertain Future
Stephen Eide, E21

Interest rates have never been lower as the government embarks on one of the largest fiscal spending programs in history. The CARES Act is expected to cost at least $2 trillion and more is expected to come. It is tempting to argue that while interest rates are so low—even negative-- all this spending is effectively costless. Yet this new debt will last far longer than the economic damage from the coronavirus and the U.S. Government is exposed to interest rate risk because it normally finances its spending with short term debt. As it comes due, the debt is rolled over with newer bonds. If interest rates go up in the future, servicing the debt could get expensive and begin to crowd out other spending. Read more here...

Waking Up to Reality
Razib Khan, City Journal

THE FED & COVID PANDEMIC

How to help failing black communities

Congress’ economic recovery package includes $500 billion to provide loans to large US corporations. These loans should avoid adding to financial distress, be temporary, be respectful of private control, and grant a reasonable return to taxpayers, write R. Glenn Hubbard and Michael Strain.
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The middle class is changing, not dying
Michael R. Strain | Mercatus Center

FAMILY STRUCTURE, EDUCATION OUTCOMES & THE ISLAMISTS TAKE FRANCE

2/28/2020

A future of work that complements family life
Angela Rachidi and Abby McCloskey | Institute for Family Studies
The new rhythms of teleworking point to a promising future for families — one in which flexible work practices support parents and their children alike.

IAN ROWE
Measure What Matters
On family structure and student outcomes

Reevaluating the Prosperity of the American Family – Oren Cass, Manhattan Institute

Michel Gurfinkiel: Islamists Stand a "Very Good Chance" of Conquering France by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Radio
March 7, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60539/islamists-very-good-chance-of-conquering-france

Paul Stott on Islamist Radicalization in the United Kingdom by Marilyn Stern
Middle East Forum Radio
March 5, 2020
https://www.meforum.org/60534/paul-stott-on-islamist-radicalization-in-the-uk

HOW THE GREAT GOLDEN HORDE IS STILL ALIVE: ANCIENT TURKIC SPEAKING PEOPLES IN EURASIA

2/10/2020