Working-Age, but Not Working, 1960 to 2025 Steven Camarota and Karen Zeigler Center For Immigration Studies
Changes in Milestones of Adulthood and Women, Men and Jobs and The Sex Recession: The Share Of Americans Having Regular Sex Keeps Dropping
Marriage, Cohabitation, and Separation: A Dynamic Approach to the Second Demographic Transition Sean Elliott University of Toronto
In the mid-1990s, individuals became more likely to cohabit and less likely to marry. After the financial crisis, remaining single became more common and fertility declined sharply. Dissolution rates for both marriage and cohabitation have declined.
Using four decades of monthly U.S. demographic data, I show that: (i) marriage has declined while cohabitation has risen, (ii) both unions have become more stable over time, and (iii) there are two inflection points: the mid-1990s, when substitution from marriage to cohabitation accelerated, and after the 2008 financial crisis, when remaining single became more common. Figure 3 summarizes these changes in one-year hazard rates. The first phase of the transition corresponds to substitution from marriage toward cohabitation; the second marks a regime in which remaining single became increasingly common. I refer to these as the first and second inflection points of the second demographic transition. Figure 3d also shows that fertility declined substantially after the 2008 financial crisis. Estimates of a nonstationary matching model show that rising match-formation costs outpaced surplus gains, reducing partnership formation, while marriage stability is driven by rising surplus and cohabitation stability by higher dissolution costs. Policy reforms in the 1990s coincide with the marriage-cohabitation substitution, and counterfactuals indicate that, coming out of the 2008 crisis, had house prices not risen so sharply, marriage formation would have been higher while cohabitation would have decreased.
Changes in Milestones of Adulthood and All Over The Rich World, Fewer People Are Hooking Up And Shacking Up and The Sex Recession: The Share Of Americans Having Regular Sex Keeps Dropping
Family as the Foundation of Republican Democracy Robert P. George | New York University School of Law Democracy Project Whatever one thinks of baby bonuses or child-tax credits as policy matters, the debate over “natalism” lays bare the deepest fault line in modern politics.
READ MORE ›
The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Think
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde | The Spectator Creating the conditions for large families to flourish is the only way to reverse the trend in fertility rates. If we fail to do so, the coming demographic winter will be far harsher than anyone cares to admit. Full Story
Out of Work
Naomi Schaefer Riley | CommentaryIn her new book, The Myth of Making It: A Workplace Reckoning, Samhita Mukhopadhyay concludes that for many women, work has become untenable. But the conclusion you might reach after reading is that it is feminism that has become untenable for women. Full Story
Women Want More Children Than They’re Having. America Can Do More to Help.
Brad Wilcox and Wendy Wang | Deseret News
The Comeback City
Robert Doar | American Enterprise Institute Individual opportunity, market-based solutions, and rigorous accountability were the key to New York City’s revitalization in the 1990s and 2000s. Full Story
Katie Roiphe based her work on one good argument, and one bad one. Feminists accepted the bad one.
READ MORE ›
Male Malaise Is Not Just About "the Culture"
W. Bradford Wilcox and Elizabeth Self | American Conservative Absent clear interventions, we can expect to see all too many boys and young men continue to drift, underperforming in school, work, love, and life. For their sake and ours, let us not leave them to the enervating embrace of Big Business and Big Education. Full Story 
Growing Up in Intact Families Matters More Than Ever
W. Bradford Wilcox and David Bass | National Review Marriage has lost ground in the popular imagination and in practice. But marriage has more of an impact than ever on kids' well-being. Full Story
Our expressive civil liberties enable a pluralistic society made up of people with deep differences on things that matter.
READ MORE ›
Given the realities of global economics, parlaying black poverty and historical disadvantage for moral victim points only goes so far.
READ MORE ›
Missing but Wanted: Children
Partisan explanations for why birth rates are falling miss the true sources of a cross-cultural trend, and the possible solutions BY MICHAEL LIND
The Geography of Work
Nicholas Eberstadt and Peter Van Ness | National Affairs Social scientists and policymakers tend to be infected with a whole array of unarticulated assumptions about work in America that simply do not comport with the facts on the ground. Full Story |
DEMOGRAPHIC TOUR OF THE WORLD: JOHN MUELLER
ECONOMICS & DEMOGRAPHY
THE BELL CURVE: LINKS BETWEEN CULTURE, BIOLOGY & COGNITION
THE STATE OF WHITE AMERICA
NICHOLAS EBERSTADT - DEMOGRAPHER
Archives
September 2026
Categories |
||||||||||||||||||||||||
RSS Feed